{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c388a64-b2f3-4e69-acdc-9fb3c25835aa", "symbol": "URAA", "name": "DIREXION DAILY URANIUM INDUSTRY BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.146, "architecture_energy": 60.005, "architecture_maturity": 37.397, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.7, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 11.16, "deceleration": 44.88, "rotation_down": 63.03, "downward_expansion": 86.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.617333, 23.641039, 27.871069, 30.889693 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.82, "trend_reference": 35.336948, "distance_from_trend": -0.26932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.510635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.124975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401086, "excess_performance": -0.52671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.26932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.573776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434668, "relative_activity": 1.17834, "balance": 0.407588, "dry_up": 0.856656, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206864, "annualized_volatility": 0.810519, "from_high_reference": -0.586082, "from_low_reference": 0.366861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.336948, "fair_value_reference": 26.510635, "structural_low": 18.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.338876, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.334256, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.338876, "worst_return": -0.338876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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36.375191, "fair_value": 26.571564, "relative_strength": -45.017095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.145993, "energy": 80.207123, "activity_lines": [ 22.294, 24.807099, 29.566324, 32.557534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.56, "volume": 256741, "typical_volume": 364831.7, "trend": 35.856345, "fair_value": 26.516913, "relative_strength": -46.726209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.134748, "energy": 79.034453, "activity_lines": [ 21.415333, 23.633711, 28.42836, 31.537199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.82, "volume": 434668, "typical_volume": 368881.65, "trend": 35.336948, "fair_value": 26.510635, "relative_strength": -35.124975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.145518, "energy": 60.00534, "activity_lines": [ 22.617333, 23.641039, 27.871069, 30.889693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }