{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c3df336-47bc-4ae0-baa5-fb7fbd9e5b7e", "symbol": "RILY", "name": "BRC Group Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.967, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.542, "architecture_energy": 19.393, "architecture_maturity": 20.142, "architecture_confidence": 58.46, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.33, "rotation_up": 20.32, "upward_expansion": 12.99, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 35.71, "downward_expansion": 60.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.988877, 6.893194, 7.456789, 7.506679 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.18, "trend_reference": 7.637066, "distance_from_trend": -0.059848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.185781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.410789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.377998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088832, "excess_performance": -0.276286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.410789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255492, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3477565, "relative_activity": 0.826964, "balance": 1.114263, "dry_up": 0.643738, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187107, "annualized_volatility": 0.712866, "from_high_reference": -0.36121, "from_low_reference": 0.972527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.637066, "fair_value_reference": 12.185781, "structural_low": 5.771963, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.070337, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038039, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.6139, "worst_return": -0.27674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13977, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.672, "worst_return": -0.345731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.285972, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.055469, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.796, "worst_return": -0.788286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082165, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.214275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007656, "worst_return": -0.856104, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.264957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.351351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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6.548114, 7.151757, 7.61615, 7.601595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.88, "volume": 2157877, "typical_volume": 4310113.0, "trend": 7.565066, "fair_value": 12.714301, "relative_strength": -3.851031, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.380473, "energy": 41.815412, "activity_lines": [ 6.621554, 6.983267, 7.543188, 7.561913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.16, "volume": 3060415, "typical_volume": 4213911.8, "trend": 7.631066, "fair_value": 12.447831, "relative_strength": -0.697663, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.929064, "energy": 31.284502, "activity_lines": [ 6.830482, 6.904412, 7.49975, 7.53578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.18, "volume": 3477565, "typical_volume": 4205217.5, "trend": 7.637066, "fair_value": 12.185781, "relative_strength": -5.377998, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.541649, "energy": 19.392798, "activity_lines": [ 6.988877, 6.893194, 7.456789, 7.506679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }