{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c40c4de-94b0-4720-9014-423adebb941f", "symbol": "PLUS", "name": "Royal Plus Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 85.502, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.122, "architecture_energy": 13.308, "architecture_maturity": 17.201, "architecture_confidence": 50.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.23, "rotation_up": 47.01, "upward_expansion": 41.2, "deceleration": 33.78, "rotation_down": 21.24, "downward_expansion": 13.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.330667, 1.320727, 1.287381, 1.302108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.326333, "distance_from_trend": 0.010304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.260895, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.685512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.291303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211765, "excess_performance": -0.40409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.685512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.638755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13379000, "relative_activity": 1.903622, "balance": 0.638755, "dry_up": 1.214568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094145, "annualized_volatility": 0.399023, "from_high_reference": -0.578616, "from_low_reference": 0.381443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.326333, "fair_value_reference": 4.260895, "structural_low": 0.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076336, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07774, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.248351, "worst_return": -0.015152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.273744, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.285607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273744, "worst_return": 0.273744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.161193, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.161193, "worst_return": -0.161193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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5385000, "typical_volume": 7893020.0, "trend": 1.304333, "fair_value": 4.422243, "relative_strength": -36.070504, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.210234, "energy": 21.028388, "activity_lines": [ 1.322, 1.266182, 1.269762, 1.296946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.38, "volume": 14962600, "typical_volume": 7236335.0, "trend": 1.310667, "fair_value": 4.383917, "relative_strength": -34.599896, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.391995, "energy": 30.458991, "activity_lines": [ 1.353333, 1.290909, 1.278476, 1.301828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.31, "volume": 4751400, "typical_volume": 6971560.0, "trend": 1.315, "fair_value": 4.341729, "relative_strength": -36.463625, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.733109, "energy": 22.499487, "activity_lines": [ 1.347333, 1.301455, 1.280857, 1.301785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3, "volume": 1051800, "typical_volume": 6750035.0, "trend": 1.32, "fair_value": 4.301339, "relative_strength": -34.552143, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.359074, "energy": 16.614043, "activity_lines": [ 1.329333, 1.308364, 1.282143, 1.300817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 13379000, "typical_volume": 7028180.0, "trend": 1.326333, "fair_value": 4.260895, "relative_strength": -30.291303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.122106, "energy": 13.308256, "activity_lines": [ 1.330667, 1.320727, 1.287381, 1.302108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }