{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c45dc1f-c978-4454-9ef5-20e9a55f4bc4", "symbol": "HIFS", "name": "Hingham Institution for Savings", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.297, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.052, "architecture_energy": 7.593, "architecture_maturity": 46.417, "architecture_confidence": 52.932, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.26, "rotation_up": 25.95, "upward_expansion": 22.08, "deceleration": 63.18, "rotation_down": 41.96, "downward_expansion": 33.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.772697, 293.735528, 291.410393, 290.128475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 301.57, "trend_reference": 291.258503, "distance_from_trend": 0.035403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 236.957743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.851269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093347, "excess_performance": -0.2808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.626797, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237742, "relative_activity": 1.273925, "balance": 1.626797, "dry_up": 1.208402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071374, "annualized_volatility": 0.361755, "from_high_reference": -0.105753, "from_low_reference": 0.273858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 291.258503, "fair_value_reference": 236.957743, "structural_low": 255.68, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031803, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.347831, "worst_return": -0.143435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042909, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.115279, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.384029, "worst_return": -0.180875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399416, "worst_return": -0.213487, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.775115, "energy": 33.360976, "activity_lines": [ 300.346936, 295.183827, 290.290782, 290.217991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 294.509487, "volume": 140627, "typical_volume": 187431.85, "trend": 290.262018, "fair_value": 235.502818, "relative_strength": -6.576191, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.320498, "energy": 39.438289, "activity_lines": [ 298.932013, 295.959529, 291.108629, 290.494082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 278.773177, "volume": 234897, "typical_volume": 188194.1, "trend": 289.91443, "fair_value": 235.924625, "relative_strength": -10.039459, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.031647, "energy": 7.234687, "activity_lines": [ 292.244353, 293.675547, 290.351502, 289.752866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 284.570765, "volume": 288790, "typical_volume": 188085.0, "trend": 290.404398, "fair_value": 236.346364, "relative_strength": -8.608397, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.288749, "energy": 11.568706, "activity_lines": [ 287.881011, 292.157432, 290.111354, 289.408114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 301.57, "volume": 237742, "typical_volume": 186621.65, "trend": 291.258503, "fair_value": 236.957743, "relative_strength": -7.851269, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.052289, "energy": 7.59344, "activity_lines": [ 290.772697, 293.735528, 291.410393, 290.128475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }