{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c5115b4-d06c-4a5e-8c4f-5a2f19d83cd7", "symbol": "TARK", "name": "TRADR 2X LONG INNOVATION ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.941, "architecture_energy": 19.124, "architecture_maturity": 34.012, "architecture_confidence": 44.364, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.62, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 15.01, "deceleration": 48.24, "rotation_down": 52.15, "downward_expansion": 45.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.05154, 42.66158, 43.534482, 42.964854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 45.2836, "trend_reference": 43.012373, "distance_from_trend": 0.052804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.64792, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.441671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146023, "excess_performance": -0.041431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270301, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.104265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83474, "relative_activity": 0.963955, "balance": 1.104265, "dry_up": 0.885377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148855, "annualized_volatility": 0.745574, "from_high_reference": -0.386526, "from_low_reference": 0.475036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.012373, "fair_value_reference": 35.64792, "structural_low": 30.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021522, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039128, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.357962, "worst_return": -0.248036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041783, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.059495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.461267, "worst_return": -0.292828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.111586, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.199016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.629116, "worst_return": -0.299121, 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"relative_strength": -18.04684, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.719986, "energy": 25.369102, "activity_lines": [ 46.74778, 45.882049, 44.500878, 43.914317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.4601, "volume": 65556, "typical_volume": 87642.5, "trend": 44.176673, "fair_value": 35.463938, "relative_strength": -24.035806, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.944925, "energy": 6.255868, "activity_lines": [ 45.209247, 45.141716, 44.362126, 43.714631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.5509, "volume": 68818, "typical_volume": 85004.5, "trend": 43.699067, "fair_value": 35.479074, "relative_strength": -29.428632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.869185, "energy": 16.064322, "activity_lines": [ 42.434093, 43.79604, 43.853679, 43.287161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.6742, "volume": 88830, "typical_volume": 86177.05, "trend": 43.254497, "fair_value": 35.524988, "relative_strength": -30.982293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.02307, "energy": 36.562989, "activity_lines": [ 40.033313, 42.380925, 43.279614, 42.833944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.2836, "volume": 83474, "typical_volume": 86595.35, "trend": 43.012373, "fair_value": 35.64792, "relative_strength": -18.441671, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.941337, "energy": 19.124245, "activity_lines": [ 41.05154, 42.66158, 43.534482, 42.964854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }