{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c55a4ad-ddf4-4b63-9c36-6657fda9d411", "symbol": "MLGRC", "name": "Groupe Carnivor Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.326, "architecture_energy": 38.634, "architecture_maturity": 62.028, "architecture_confidence": 60.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 43.64, "upward_expansion": 65.54, "deceleration": 71.17, "rotation_down": 21.18, "downward_expansion": 11.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.6, 28.763637, 27.651429, 26.706667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.0, "trend_reference": 25.523333, "distance_from_trend": 0.057856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.833333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.066197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.413613, "excess_performance": 0.360301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070662, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.413613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 3.478261, "balance": 0.571429, "dry_up": 2.608696, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079772, "annualized_volatility": 0.739572, "from_high_reference": -0.258242, "from_low_reference": 0.764706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.523333, "fair_value_reference": 21.833333, "structural_low": 19.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.009199, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.752941, "worst_return": -0.176724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019457, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.552941, "worst_return": -0.197279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.118812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.774956, "worst_return": -0.195804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.358333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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[ 30.800001, 29.287273, 27.294286, 26.289677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.6, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 25.243333, "fair_value": 21.85, "relative_strength": 15.702348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.912172, "energy": 58.210557, "activity_lines": [ 30.106667, 29.192728, 27.450476, 26.451183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.75, "trend": 25.396667, "fair_value": 21.84359, "relative_strength": 12.918163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.546254, "energy": 51.062679, "activity_lines": [ 29.44, 29.029091, 27.588571, 26.603226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 5.75, "trend": 25.523333, "fair_value": 21.833333, "relative_strength": 7.066197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.325816, "energy": 38.63417, "activity_lines": [ 28.6, 28.763637, 27.651429, 26.706667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }