{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c59fe4f-d434-4412-ac84-1b2ce1faab5f", "symbol": "H30", "name": "Hong Fok Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.257, "architecture_energy": 50.135, "architecture_maturity": 2.115, "architecture_confidence": 77.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.06, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 25.75, "deceleration": 49.89, "rotation_down": 64.49, "downward_expansion": 53.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.896333, 0.911455, 0.936085, 0.928689 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 0.908693, "distance_from_trend": 0.001438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.821637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.515506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094059, "excess_performance": -0.060776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 720500, "relative_activity": 0.247808, "balance": 0.323727, "dry_up": 0.271549, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045647, "annualized_volatility": 0.298692, "from_high_reference": -0.149065, "from_low_reference": 0.2676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.908693, "fair_value_reference": 0.821637, "structural_low": 0.792157, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00046, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.12, "worst_return": -0.02381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025317, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140001, "worst_return": -0.100001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064286, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319604, "worst_return": -0.104711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"fair_value": 0.822104, "relative_strength": -11.345649, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.944194, "energy": 30.515003, "activity_lines": [ 0.907, 0.926818, 0.945092, 0.929909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 544900, "typical_volume": 3261300.0, "trend": 0.905425, "fair_value": 0.821713, "relative_strength": -12.645927, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.210045, "energy": 53.828277, "activity_lines": [ 0.894333, 0.915545, 0.939299, 0.928394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.91, "volume": 720500, "typical_volume": 2907490.0, "trend": 0.908693, "fair_value": 0.821637, "relative_strength": -10.515506, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.257471, "energy": 50.135189, "activity_lines": [ 0.896333, 0.911455, 0.936085, 0.928689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }