{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c6053b1-12c2-4166-802e-12506dc4fc85", "symbol": "002657", "name": "Sinodata Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.896, "architecture_energy": 80.928, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.841, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.11, "rotation_up": 9.45, "upward_expansion": 19.66, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 72.0, "downward_expansion": 90.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.093333, 16.645454, 18.177381, 19.672322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.8, "trend_reference": 22.12, "distance_from_trend": -0.285714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.423013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.674476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434097, "excess_performance": -0.441497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226363, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305226, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.602073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100340682, "relative_activity": 1.843835, "balance": 0.602073, "dry_up": 1.557563, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155015, "annualized_volatility": 0.630586, "from_high_reference": -0.674294, "from_low_reference": 0.22291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.12, "fair_value_reference": 20.423013, "structural_low": 12.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.04944, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020527, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.350467, "worst_return": -0.293138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001015, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.002524, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.024545, "worst_return": -0.238437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072455, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.246242, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.950909, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -37.954844, "energy": 24.512516, "activity_lines": [ 20.853333, 20.335454, 20.946952, 22.371226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.379999, "volume": 137656578, "typical_volume": 47081267.15, "trend": 23.867, "fair_value": 20.457244, "relative_strength": -47.179707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.242885, "energy": 47.298159, "activity_lines": [ 19.463333, 19.623818, 20.406666, 21.866925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.01, "volume": 83831821, "typical_volume": 49143818.85, "trend": 23.448667, "fair_value": 20.440449, "relative_strength": -49.417953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.180779, "energy": 61.241505, "activity_lines": [ 17.452666, 18.560727, 19.692762, 21.230989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.28, "volume": 54409923, "typical_volume": 48611541.7, "trend": 22.992, "fair_value": 20.422949, "relative_strength": -51.44668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.467234, "energy": 89.003579, "activity_lines": [ 15.701333, 17.508182, 18.975714, 20.574946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.79, "volume": 100465026, "typical_volume": 51486739.0, "trend": 22.588667, "fair_value": 20.421731, "relative_strength": -40.51088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.410551, "energy": 83.326441, "activity_lines": [ 15.222667, 17.042, 18.55519, 20.110301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.8, "volume": 100340682, "typical_volume": 54419557.45, "trend": 22.12, "fair_value": 20.423013, "relative_strength": -42.674476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.895532, "energy": 80.928445, "activity_lines": [ 15.093333, 16.645454, 18.177381, 19.672322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }