{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c6992ec-e9b5-43be-bb50-81c1bc7b5930", "symbol": "002151", "name": "Beijing BDStar Navigation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.63, "architecture_energy": 75.819, "architecture_maturity": 32.542, "architecture_confidence": 89.908, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 13.63, "upward_expansion": 17.14, "deceleration": 40.89, "rotation_down": 70.72, "downward_expansion": 90.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.644, 29.873091, 32.763476, 34.97314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.68, "trend_reference": 38.634333, "distance_from_trend": -0.231771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.511794, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.205686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320357, "excess_performance": -0.327757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027261, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.469271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68256473, "relative_activity": 0.884304, "balance": 0.482912, "dry_up": 1.150184, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101156, "annualized_volatility": 0.483378, "from_high_reference": -0.556353, "from_low_reference": 0.13499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.634333, "fair_value_reference": 30.511794, "structural_low": 26.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.017746, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.004882, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.203712, "worst_return": -0.171096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035548, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02437, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.259542, "worst_return": -0.145587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051158, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.020452, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.097256, "worst_return": -0.241517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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32.647333, 34.437818, 36.567714, 38.442946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.610001, "volume": 102630496, "typical_volume": 100330746.7, "trend": 39.975667, "fair_value": 30.667699, "relative_strength": -17.014164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.492617, "energy": 76.71501, "activity_lines": [ 32.468667, 33.751091, 36.025429, 37.970344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.09, "volume": 136744024, "typical_volume": 103938671.5, "trend": 39.824, "fair_value": 30.617231, "relative_strength": -23.975443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.420569, "energy": 82.500307, "activity_lines": [ 30.605334, 32.211455, 35.004714, 37.139011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.93, "volume": 79846501, "typical_volume": 97725485.1, "trend": 39.617667, "fair_value": 30.569308, "relative_strength": -24.450129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.086798, "energy": 80.556325, "activity_lines": [ 29.133334, 30.951091, 34.048333, 36.30714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.42, "volume": 70268537, "typical_volume": 85687449.55, "trend": 39.159333, "fair_value": 30.532975, "relative_strength": -18.844978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.223696, "energy": 74.185833, "activity_lines": [ 28.584, 30.202546, 33.304762, 35.58471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.68, "volume": 68256473, "typical_volume": 77186670.75, "trend": 38.634333, "fair_value": 30.511794, "relative_strength": -19.205686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.630326, "energy": 75.819293, "activity_lines": [ 28.644, 29.873091, 32.763476, 34.97314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }