{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c6c1c3a-80e6-434c-8215-da7f3465e8dc", "symbol": "CVNA", "name": "Carvana Co.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.828, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.603, "architecture_energy": 21.175, "architecture_maturity": 32.354, "architecture_confidence": 85.278, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.26, "rotation_up": 24.8, "upward_expansion": 6.75, "deceleration": 50.39, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 70.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1138.266667, 1143.210183, 1173.083716, 1180.103831 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1243.0, "trend_reference": 1219.839001, "distance_from_trend": 0.018987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 829.223193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.498993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.710131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105755, "excess_performance": -0.051089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.498993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.384198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.21668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 874, "relative_activity": 0.840546, "balance": 0.21668, "dry_up": 1.970812, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088305, "annualized_volatility": 0.655674, "from_high_reference": -0.270112, "from_low_reference": 0.218627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1219.839001, "fair_value_reference": 829.223193, 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"fair_value": 797.383116, "relative_strength": -11.629389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.330067, "energy": 46.801862, "activity_lines": [ 1156.337337, 1178.971091, 1192.698242, 1221.76436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1159.0, "volume": 2032, "typical_volume": 827.45, "trend": 1282.5606, "fair_value": 804.012604, "relative_strength": -13.480015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.44438, "energy": 34.358822, "activity_lines": [ 1158.535335, 1168.706547, 1190.513146, 1212.622816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1208.5, "volume": 1701, "typical_volume": 786.5, "trend": 1269.172335, "fair_value": 810.763257, "relative_strength": -9.554788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.850561, "energy": 21.584855, "activity_lines": [ 1177.633333, 1171.736548, 1193.069003, 1207.844713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1041.0, "volume": 757, "typical_volume": 781.35, "trend": 1251.339001, "fair_value": 816.500437, "relative_strength": -21.347275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.152354, "energy": 40.278451, "activity_lines": [ 1135.266667, 1147.706547, 1179.583431, 1193.123917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1040.0, "volume": 4865, "typical_volume": 1013.35, "trend": 1233.472335, "fair_value": 822.154283, "relative_strength": -21.398681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.345095, "energy": 47.15888, "activity_lines": [ 1100.5, 1126.00382, 1166.483573, 1179.489143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1243.0, "volume": 874, "typical_volume": 1039.8, "trend": 1219.839001, "fair_value": 829.223193, "relative_strength": -5.710131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.603136, "energy": 21.17492, "activity_lines": [ 1138.266667, 1143.210183, 1173.083716, 1180.103831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }