{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c6d6e25-2702-40e2-beec-2470c67a54da", "symbol": "ITDB", "name": "ISHARES TRUST LIFEPATH TARGET DATE 2030 ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.948, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.731, "architecture_energy": 45.288, "architecture_maturity": 33.891, "architecture_confidence": 55.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 45.63, "upward_expansion": 76.97, "deceleration": 68.7, "rotation_down": 27.65, "downward_expansion": 5.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.0034, 34.958325, 34.796888, 34.478275 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.4643, "trend_reference": 34.118277, "distance_from_trend": 0.039452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.954047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.352099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053917, "excess_performance": -0.071708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs 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decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031122, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036783, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060394, "worst_return": 0.001851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.084959, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084959, "worst_return": 0.084959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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34.048033, "fair_value": 29.916305, "relative_strength": -4.007568, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.796354, "energy": 29.341638, "activity_lines": [ 34.799547, 34.849735, 34.687383, 34.386903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.4643, "volume": 87918, "typical_volume": 101302.35, "trend": 34.118277, "fair_value": 29.954047, "relative_strength": -5.352099, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.731489, "energy": 45.287927, "activity_lines": [ 35.0034, 34.958325, 34.796888, 34.478275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }