{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c6d93a6-7b49-4626-83cd-11621bf4e174", "symbol": "603810", "name": "Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.28, "architecture_energy": 60.787, "architecture_maturity": 83.058, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 25.95, "upward_expansion": 11.22, "deceleration": 60.49, "rotation_down": 55.82, "downward_expansion": 84.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.053333, 11.224544, 12.330727, 13.294955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.65, "trend_reference": 14.455804, "distance_from_trend": -0.194095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.862591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.251969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296922, "excess_performance": -0.253718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10979222, "relative_activity": 1.151189, "balance": 0.262173, "dry_up": 1.213073, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093571, "annualized_volatility": 0.315263, "from_high_reference": -0.396998, "from_low_reference": 0.166166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.455804, "fair_value_reference": 12.862591, "structural_low": 9.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.021907, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.012965, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.126761, "worst_return": -0.172149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.075231, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.082927, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.383893, "worst_return": -0.296946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090683, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.11755, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.064233, "worst_return": -0.162701, "sufficient": false 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.377723, "energy": 89.669978, "activity_lines": [ 11.526667, 12.225989, 13.521616, 14.309872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.81, "volume": 11030560, "typical_volume": 10669676.65, "trend": 14.957138, "fair_value": 12.920988, "relative_strength": -27.349121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.846188, "energy": 87.273997, "activity_lines": [ 11.228, 11.829436, 13.164501, 14.032229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 13768636, "typical_volume": 10082836.05, "trend": 14.770804, "fair_value": 12.897142, "relative_strength": -31.046607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.572566, "energy": 78.669649, "activity_lines": [ 10.868667, 11.426772, 12.789481, 13.731768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 10499296, "typical_volume": 9726024.1, "trend": 14.599804, "fair_value": 12.877142, "relative_strength": -26.430338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.210936, "energy": 65.866964, "activity_lines": [ 10.834667, 11.228452, 12.511842, 13.485265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.65, "volume": 10979222, "typical_volume": 9537290.85, "trend": 14.455804, "fair_value": 12.862591, "relative_strength": -23.251969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.279959, "energy": 60.786662, "activity_lines": [ 11.053333, 11.224544, 12.330727, 13.294955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }