{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c7d28e1-1b9e-4d21-84bb-7a04900c2d63", "symbol": "DWTX", "name": "Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.544, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.667, "architecture_energy": 24.086, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.281, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.26, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 32.95, "downward_expansion": 60.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.617667, 1.568545, 1.593762, 1.781011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.805, "trend_reference": 2.0845, "distance_from_trend": -0.134085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.221224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.750042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -56.024529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.430599, "excess_performance": -0.618053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.750042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.560245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.444383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244130, "relative_activity": 0.560987, "balance": 1.444383, "dry_up": 0.544691, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148289, "annualized_volatility": 0.814763, "from_high_reference": -0.81, "from_low_reference": 0.410156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.0845, "fair_value_reference": 7.221224, "structural_low": 1.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.016885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028481, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 3.785441, "worst_return": -0.448837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024159, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063503, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.332419, "worst_return": -0.9, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.419932, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.5682, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.221037, "worst_return": -0.938692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.506277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.394298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.642789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1.888882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 271740, "typical_volume": 466436.75, "trend": 2.206, "fair_value": 7.622313, "relative_strength": -62.945849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.948811, "energy": 50.888979, "activity_lines": [ 1.460667, 1.503455, 1.598238, 1.837806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.64, "volume": 166810, "typical_volume": 457350.45, "trend": 2.119333, "fair_value": 7.34757, "relative_strength": -58.852217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.387924, "energy": 43.034093, "activity_lines": [ 1.511333, 1.519636, 1.584762, 1.80129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.805, "volume": 244130, "typical_volume": 435179.15, "trend": 2.0845, "fair_value": 7.221224, "relative_strength": -56.024529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.666704, "energy": 24.086417, "activity_lines": [ 1.617667, 1.568545, 1.593762, 1.781011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }