{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c7fbb70-6b22-46cc-8771-621ec725f461", "symbol": "000738", "name": "Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.851, "architecture_energy": 47.55, "architecture_maturity": 46.734, "architecture_confidence": 86.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.28, "rotation_up": 25.23, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 58.39, "rotation_down": 45.86, "downward_expansion": 76.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.916001, 18.006192, 18.860121, 19.942937 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.43, "trend_reference": 21.4278, "distance_from_trend": -0.139902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.120414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.087629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2456, "excess_performance": -0.252999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63905871, "relative_activity": 0.769383, "balance": 0.417802, "dry_up": 0.83498, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080258, "annualized_volatility": 0.427473, "from_high_reference": -0.388723, "from_low_reference": 0.12584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.4278, "fair_value_reference": 20.120414, "structural_low": 16.370001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007275, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.00022, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.224719, "worst_return": -0.250526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040649, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020442, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.120082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040133, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.206693, "worst_return": -0.221311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.502573, "energy": 73.149883, "activity_lines": [ 17.649296, 18.268705, 19.446893, 20.62836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.690001, "volume": 77364757, "typical_volume": 90580752.3, "trend": 21.618134, "fair_value": 20.177638, "relative_strength": -15.596598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.936675, "energy": 55.822996, "activity_lines": [ 17.574, 18.049223, 19.17835, 20.368223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.120001, "volume": 64179460, "typical_volume": 84960501.8, "trend": 21.5238, "fair_value": 20.145765, "relative_strength": -11.674213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.683325, "energy": 52.068733, "activity_lines": [ 17.710001, 17.974978, 18.991617, 20.142537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.43, "volume": 63905871, "typical_volume": 83061175.95, "trend": 21.4278, "fair_value": 20.120414, "relative_strength": -14.087629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.850557, "energy": 47.549933, "activity_lines": [ 17.916001, 18.006192, 18.860121, 19.942937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }