{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c84e8b1-085f-44ff-9c6c-22153cfea63e", "symbol": "CMBS", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CMBS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.513, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.292, "architecture_energy": 40.319, "architecture_maturity": 38.462, "architecture_confidence": 91.664, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.08, "rotation_up": 14.96, "upward_expansion": 7.51, "deceleration": 41.51, "rotation_down": 57.16, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.205675, 48.276976, 48.328109, 48.387202 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.19, "trend_reference": 48.469654, "distance_from_trend": -0.00577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.566784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.144316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010232, "excess_performance": -0.135857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.019753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171697, "relative_activity": 0.866236, "balance": 1.019753, "dry_up": 0.71367, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008705, "annualized_volatility": 0.031078, "from_high_reference": -0.022334, "from_low_reference": 0.022357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.469654, "fair_value_reference": 45.566784, "structural_low": 47.869936, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001351, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.012458, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.037342, "worst_return": -0.037432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006786, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.022571, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048899, "worst_return": -0.05334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012502, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.065807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042739, "worst_return": -0.06744, 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"fair_value": 45.39396, "relative_strength": -9.921768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.613274, "energy": 14.959515, "activity_lines": [ 48.390194, 48.381568, 48.402919, 48.45596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.316895, "volume": 137173, "typical_volume": 201041.4, "trend": 48.482503, "fair_value": 45.437602, "relative_strength": -8.177344, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.252365, "energy": 18.544603, "activity_lines": [ 48.363514, 48.370898, 48.388283, 48.44512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.162369, "volume": 158994, "typical_volume": 200438.65, "trend": 48.479858, "fair_value": 45.480485, "relative_strength": -7.698366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.59683, "energy": 34.844074, "activity_lines": [ 48.285689, 48.33521, 48.363569, 48.424466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.184302, "volume": 97963, "typical_volume": 195014.9, "trend": 48.472034, "fair_value": 45.523383, "relative_strength": -8.355962, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.107453, "energy": 39.644066, "activity_lines": [ 48.231823, 48.305602, 48.344659, 48.405398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.19, "volume": 171697, "typical_volume": 198210.4, "trend": 48.469654, "fair_value": 45.566784, "relative_strength": -11.144316, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.292111, "energy": 40.318924, "activity_lines": [ 48.205675, 48.276976, 48.328109, 48.387202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }