{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c8738b7-d8a3-43b9-85c7-445f1290b69e", "symbol": "301618", "name": "Dongguan Changlian New Materials Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.826, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.105, "architecture_energy": 33.474, "architecture_maturity": 51.291, "architecture_confidence": 69.397, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.02, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 68.8, "rotation_down": 61.38, "downward_expansion": 39.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.804, 37.074363, 37.700098, 37.332852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.810001, "trend_reference": 37.090485, "distance_from_trend": -0.088445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.420078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221328, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.982518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139546, "excess_performance": -0.146946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6781661, "relative_activity": 1.014374, "balance": 0.873363, "dry_up": 1.413502, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141891, "annualized_volatility": 0.532467, "from_high_reference": -0.309859, "from_low_reference": 0.14223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.090485, "fair_value_reference": 43.420078, "structural_low": 29.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023052, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 42.57, "volume": 19117343, "typical_volume": 5683981.45, "trend": 37.261395, "fair_value": 43.844647, "relative_strength": -2.096321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.661159, "energy": 68.215771, "activity_lines": [ 43.286666, 41.654371, 39.167717, 38.256531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.5, "volume": 11284316, "typical_volume": 6074896.05, "trend": 37.358064, "fair_value": 43.787178, "relative_strength": -2.070702, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.08374, "energy": 48.119053, "activity_lines": [ 42.034666, 41.321935, 39.249613, 38.336441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.799999, "volume": 10700161, "typical_volume": 6379423.55, "trend": 37.217081, "fair_value": 43.649016, "relative_strength": -21.164363, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.165742, "energy": 9.392121, "activity_lines": [ 38.158666, 39.555566, 38.593532, 37.91334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.51, "volume": 9034107, "typical_volume": 6655822.35, "trend": 37.100477, "fair_value": 43.521237, "relative_strength": -17.324478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.163818, "energy": 29.223006, "activity_lines": [ 35.066, 38.035636, 38.028504, 37.545141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.810001, "volume": 6781661, "typical_volume": 6685564.6, "trend": 37.090485, "fair_value": 43.420078, "relative_strength": -14.982518, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.10533, "energy": 33.473527, "activity_lines": [ 33.804, 37.074363, 37.700098, 37.332852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }