{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c899ba3-757f-4d3c-a623-a3502defd471", "symbol": "GANGAFORGE", "name": "Ganga Forging Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.322, "architecture_energy": 67.472, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.489, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 13.74, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 66.97, "downward_expansion": 87.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.922, 2.044106, 2.235763, 2.398699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.11, "trend_reference": 2.643215, "distance_from_trend": -0.20173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.845105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.639014, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.889935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373887, "excess_performance": -0.330178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.639014, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.416505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50397021, "relative_activity": 10.587783, "balance": 4.416505, "dry_up": 3.865025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166865, "annualized_volatility": 0.747183, "from_high_reference": -0.491566, "from_low_reference": 0.327044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.643215, "fair_value_reference": 5.845105, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.045673, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.761905, "median_excess_return": -0.052519, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.597222, "worst_return": -0.207792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.134328, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.085214, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.967213, "worst_return": -0.389655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.238095, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.205493, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.455357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.440943, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.453337, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.852459, "worst_return": -0.585034, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.344262, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034682, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.538293, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.9, "volume": 2226100, "typical_volume": 2781401.0, "trend": 4.753333, "fair_value": 7.42351, "relative_strength": 31.017402, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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1.98443, 2.140886, 2.334587, 2.499199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.77, "volume": 17396503, "typical_volume": 2279331.05, "trend": 2.686882, "fair_value": 5.870682, "relative_strength": -40.41188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.075803, "energy": 76.101872, "activity_lines": [ 1.892, 2.055677, 2.266461, 2.435917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.11, "volume": 50397021, "typical_volume": 4759921.85, "trend": 2.643215, "fair_value": 5.845105, "relative_strength": -28.889935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.321625, "energy": 67.471601, "activity_lines": [ 1.922, 2.044106, 2.235763, 2.398699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }