{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c8a61a9-84e8-470c-a4e4-f01c98dac413", "symbol": "BOSC", "name": "BOS Better Online Solutions", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.204, "architecture_energy": 15.414, "architecture_maturity": 46.51, "architecture_confidence": 80.117, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.46, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 40.11, "rotation_down": 32.55, "downward_expansion": 57.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.389333, 4.363818, 4.390952, 4.470774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.577, "distance_from_trend": -0.034302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.780254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169234, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.732375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097959, "excess_performance": -0.285413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023469, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223095, "relative_activity": 0.939114, "balance": 0.596515, "dry_up": 0.528572, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069612, "annualized_volatility": 0.24585, "from_high_reference": -0.342262, "from_low_reference": 0.163158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.577, "fair_value_reference": 3.780254, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009267, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.173655, "worst_return": -0.216297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031186, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015949, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.280795, "worst_return": -0.325524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053544, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108978, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.61159, "worst_return": -0.401272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.140452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06867, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077551, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022124, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.4601, "volume": 70945, "typical_volume": 117685.3, "trend": 2.86561, "fair_value": 2.841654, "relative_strength": 16.336545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"energy": 26.041993, "activity_lines": [ 4.335333, 4.327636, 4.447048, 4.529763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.24, "volume": 88028, "typical_volume": 254524.15, "trend": 4.609, "fair_value": 3.766835, "relative_strength": -19.392771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.65694, "energy": 30.841097, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.306182, 4.417714, 4.505742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.34, "volume": 79684, "typical_volume": 243910.75, "trend": 4.599667, "fair_value": 3.770297, "relative_strength": -15.601555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.994478, "energy": 31.250034, "activity_lines": [ 4.302, 4.308545, 4.399524, 4.488387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 111461, "typical_volume": 238106.25, "trend": 4.593333, "fair_value": 3.775767, "relative_strength": -12.456683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.445854, "energy": 20.84208, "activity_lines": [ 4.358667, 4.343273, 4.398429, 4.481957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 223095, "typical_volume": 237559.05, "trend": 4.577, "fair_value": 3.780254, "relative_strength": -17.732375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.204194, "energy": 15.413786, "activity_lines": [ 4.389333, 4.363818, 4.390952, 4.470774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }