{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ca5e59b-3fed-45f6-9065-2ee9bdfc3b74", "symbol": "002392", "name": "Beijing Lier High-temperature Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.962, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.345, "architecture_energy": 58.552, "architecture_maturity": 9.603, "architecture_confidence": 89.086, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.74, "rotation_up": 12.9, "upward_expansion": 15.07, "deceleration": 35.1, "rotation_down": 63.14, "downward_expansion": 83.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.168667, 7.465602, 7.917523, 7.965272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.5, "trend_reference": 8.064839, "distance_from_trend": -0.070037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.482397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.766081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093108, "excess_performance": -0.100507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.530779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63132931, "relative_activity": 0.563178, "balance": 0.648364, "dry_up": 0.685354, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136029, "annualized_volatility": 0.62854, "from_high_reference": -0.338041, "from_low_reference": 0.160991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.064839, "fair_value_reference": 5.482397, "structural_low": 6.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.036985, "positive_rate": 0.85, "directional_follow_through": 0.15, "median_excess_return": 0.020989, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.261494, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.034828, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.405797, "worst_return": -0.165116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040878, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.027154, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.490323, "worst_return": -0.018605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.241864, 7.638154, 8.045334, 8.059703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.18, "volume": 62641880, "typical_volume": 111557799.1, "trend": 8.064172, "fair_value": 5.457701, "relative_strength": -10.296431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.879361, "energy": 62.749032, "activity_lines": [ 7.125667, 7.504969, 7.965119, 8.00167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5, "volume": 63132931, "typical_volume": 112101117.8, "trend": 8.064839, "fair_value": 5.482397, "relative_strength": -10.766081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.344548, "energy": 58.552191, "activity_lines": [ 7.168667, 7.465602, 7.917523, 7.965272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }