{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ca93f37-26f6-42c0-a33f-ef8cc647de88", "symbol": "PEG", "name": "Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.382, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.34, "architecture_energy": 39.214, "architecture_maturity": 42.949, "architecture_confidence": 65.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.26, "rotation_up": 12.29, "upward_expansion": 13.67, "deceleration": 57.22, "rotation_down": 63.36, "downward_expansion": 65.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.88, 69.09, 68.793786, 69.046502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 65.360001, "trend_reference": 69.21915, "distance_from_trend": -0.055753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.46377, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.274064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029732, "excess_performance": -0.203978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016607, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.003584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278, "relative_activity": 16.848485, "balance": 0.003584, "dry_up": 4.227273, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033606, "annualized_volatility": 0.215741, "from_high_reference": -0.122685, "from_low_reference": 0.010826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.21915, "fair_value_reference": 66.46377, "structural_low": 64.660004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055602, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025111, "worst_return": -0.086093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.064569, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050937, "worst_return": -0.078201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.082601, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.282714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082601, "worst_return": -0.082601, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.441827, "energy": 36.74228, "activity_lines": [ 70.220053, 68.793626, 68.923681, 69.05747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 71.339996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.5, "trend": 69.076169, "fair_value": 65.911809, "relative_strength": -18.370036, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.92832, "energy": 50.860586, "activity_lines": [ 70.923333, 69.385608, 69.090785, 69.211298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 70.120003, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 2.55, "trend": 69.184586, "fair_value": 66.030621, "relative_strength": -18.234089, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.609537, "energy": 48.495451, "activity_lines": [ 70.908001, 69.698782, 69.146347, 69.278642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.55, "trend": 69.229628, "fair_value": 66.138343, "relative_strength": -16.024949, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.329339, "energy": 46.088239, "activity_lines": [ 70.761333, 69.994573, 69.217626, 69.344153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.720001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 2.6, "trend": 69.341535, "fair_value": 66.258101, "relative_strength": -15.99456, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.591905, "energy": 31.527159, "activity_lines": [ 70.706667, 70.295714, 69.348504, 69.440306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.6, "trend": 69.30242, "fair_value": 66.366769, "relative_strength": -19.45171, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.973482, "energy": 13.968944, "activity_lines": [ 69.397333, 69.85565, 69.142764, 69.300852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.360001, "volume": 278, "typical_volume": 16.5, "trend": 69.21915, "fair_value": 66.46377, "relative_strength": -23.274064, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.339632, "energy": 39.213772, "activity_lines": [ 67.88, 69.09, 68.793786, 69.046502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }