{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cbc1408-6ef8-40e1-be73-7a36e207dbb3", "symbol": "002513", "name": "Jiangsu Lanfeng Bio-chemical Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.206, "architecture_energy": 55.935, "architecture_maturity": 78.542, "architecture_confidence": 94.84, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 24.05, "upward_expansion": 9.35, "deceleration": 60.14, "rotation_down": 56.38, "downward_expansion": 82.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.782667, 4.846545, 5.273571, 5.635634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 6.138, "distance_from_trend": -0.17074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.538846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.561498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294036, "excess_performance": -0.301436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241003, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41901083, "relative_activity": 1.058207, "balance": 0.241003, "dry_up": 1.241772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097778, "annualized_volatility": 0.400299, "from_high_reference": -0.55507, "from_low_reference": 0.275689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.138, "fair_value_reference": 5.538846, "structural_low": 3.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003906, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.017718, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.259508, "worst_return": -0.181637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.110864, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.097237, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.346154, "worst_return": -0.228311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.300342, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.257566, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.094527, "worst_return": -0.247216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.658301, "active": 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"down", "direction": -78.934511, "energy": 88.129479, "activity_lines": [ 4.816667, 5.104909, 5.572381, 5.929849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.41, "volume": 57141600, "typical_volume": 45829093.6, "trend": 6.264667, "fair_value": 5.568269, "relative_strength": -33.79869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.247862, "energy": 82.037826, "activity_lines": [ 4.658, 4.921091, 5.427048, 5.805118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 44367200, "typical_volume": 42038243.6, "trend": 6.192333, "fair_value": 5.551538, "relative_strength": -27.379124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.577721, "energy": 64.511262, "activity_lines": [ 4.659333, 4.836727, 5.327524, 5.706753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 41901083, "typical_volume": 39596302.75, "trend": 6.138, "fair_value": 5.538846, "relative_strength": -25.561498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.205668, "energy": 55.934586, "activity_lines": [ 4.782667, 4.846545, 5.273571, 5.635634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }