{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cc4d7e8-0f59-4b5f-9376-f792efa6e586", "symbol": "CG", "name": "The Carlyle Group Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.263, "architecture_energy": 39.081, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.43, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.49, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 33.41, "downward_expansion": 68.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 779.8, 766.916366, 785.444671, 812.359479 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 793.0, "trend_reference": 863.56618, "distance_from_trend": -0.081715, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 829.278773, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.958577, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.179717, "excess_performance": -0.12505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.449153, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.449153, "dry_up": 1.563071, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015845, "annualized_volatility": 0.270568, "from_high_reference": -0.348528, "from_low_reference": 0.090784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 863.56618, "fair_value_reference": 829.278773, "structural_low": 727.0, 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"typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 889.183624, "fair_value": 824.477131, "relative_strength": -28.633229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.78536, "energy": 92.207327, "activity_lines": [ 731.593335, 754.833645, 792.829196, 829.322926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 793.0, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 27.35, "trend": 880.644476, "fair_value": 826.077679, "relative_strength": -21.051638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.339387, "energy": 68.279141, "activity_lines": [ 749.0, 758.301824, 789.859984, 823.117531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 793.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.35, "trend": 872.105328, "fair_value": 827.678226, "relative_strength": -20.819172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.364809, "energy": 63.078393, "activity_lines": [ 766.6, 762.327277, 787.398476, 817.463049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 793.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.35, "trend": 863.56618, "fair_value": 829.278773, "relative_strength": -19.958577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.263484, "energy": 39.081332, "activity_lines": [ 779.8, 766.916366, 785.444671, 812.359479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }