{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cc6fe91-46fb-4b3c-bb65-0922f42b0810", "symbol": "300410", "name": "Guangdong Zhengye Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.752, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.325, "architecture_energy": 66.512, "architecture_maturity": 16.333, "architecture_confidence": 69.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.76, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 22.77, "deceleration": 43.24, "rotation_down": 74.02, "downward_expansion": 64.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.333333, 8.439455, 9.402857, 9.410516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.89, "trend_reference": 9.328, "distance_from_trend": -0.15416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.353397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.202438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072855, "excess_performance": -0.080255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025919, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.786453, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118190456, "relative_activity": 1.043542, "balance": 1.786453, "dry_up": 0.969403, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196256, "annualized_volatility": 0.681351, "from_high_reference": -0.420705, "from_low_reference": 0.337288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.328, "fair_value_reference": 7.353397, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064626, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.004968, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.092764, "worst_return": -0.039957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0962, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077369, "worst_return": -0.117711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.162708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.450677, "worst_return": -0.143629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.170339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.680851, "worst_return": -0.340173, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067029, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105758, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.480275, "energy": 39.169819, "activity_lines": [ 9.024, 10.100909, 10.12019, 9.836022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.84, "volume": 116188571, "typical_volume": 110124167.0, "trend": 9.390333, "fair_value": 7.380705, "relative_strength": -26.276538, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.500144, "energy": 48.207199, "activity_lines": [ 7.963333, 9.418727, 9.837238, 9.668452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.84, "volume": 100381782, "typical_volume": 110960637.5, "trend": 9.337667, "fair_value": 7.369423, "relative_strength": -24.901901, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.473646, "energy": 67.993285, "activity_lines": [ 7.306, 8.796364, 9.564905, 9.503914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.89, "volume": 118190456, "typical_volume": 113258888.9, "trend": 9.328, "fair_value": 7.353397, "relative_strength": -17.202438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.325151, "energy": 66.51234, "activity_lines": [ 7.333333, 8.439455, 9.402857, 9.410516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }