{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cca49c3-5471-437e-a660-277952e82600", "symbol": "EFC", "name": "Ellington Financial Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.998, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.506, "architecture_energy": 40.549, "architecture_maturity": 33.256, "architecture_confidence": 56.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 42.96, "upward_expansion": 76.53, "deceleration": 67.65, "rotation_down": 27.49, "downward_expansion": 5.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.405813, 13.387797, 13.295534, 13.014944 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.6, "trend_reference": 12.757642, "distance_from_trend": 0.066028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.9661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.506534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089525, "excess_performance": -0.0361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7091756, "relative_activity": 1.122345, "balance": 1.088048, "dry_up": 0.973412, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028341, "annualized_volatility": 0.169305, "from_high_reference": -0.010909, "from_low_reference": 0.243202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.757642, "fair_value_reference": 10.9661, "structural_low": 10.939491, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00707, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001322, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126647, "worst_return": -0.025068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0417, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174568, "worst_return": -0.000749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000256, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000903, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229126, "worst_return": -0.012149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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12.690741, "fair_value": 10.840875, "relative_strength": -3.287093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.100562, "energy": 43.872348, "activity_lines": [ 13.36025, 13.348836, 12.990157, 12.797235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.448352, "volume": 4923061, "typical_volume": 7325526.7, "trend": 12.710609, "fair_value": 10.865715, "relative_strength": -3.67014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.129921, "energy": 43.134965, "activity_lines": [ 13.380639, 13.374989, 13.071022, 12.846113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.398837, "volume": 6540918, "typical_volume": 7125321.55, "trend": 12.722862, "fair_value": 10.889307, "relative_strength": -2.423686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.448484, "energy": 38.00133, "activity_lines": [ 13.382753, 13.383811, 13.139693, 12.890515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.240388, "volume": 4987900, "typical_volume": 6909999.3, "trend": 12.729834, "fair_value": 10.912947, "relative_strength": -2.915377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.336153, "energy": 33.919068, "activity_lines": [ 13.342165, 13.363175, 13.186852, 12.923904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.28, "volume": 5982199, "typical_volume": 6809993.05, "trend": 12.739038, "fair_value": 10.938453, "relative_strength": -3.587073, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.44849, "energy": 30.906348, "activity_lines": [ 13.319612, 13.346799, 13.230315, 12.959398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.6, "volume": 7091756, "typical_volume": 6318693.75, "trend": 12.757642, "fair_value": 10.9661, "relative_strength": -4.506534, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.506354, "energy": 40.549195, "activity_lines": [ 13.405813, 13.387797, 13.295534, 13.014944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }