{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7cd0416f-fbe4-4b17-a577-a6a1f3cd69bd",
    "symbol": "XWTS",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Communication Services UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -29.394,
    "architecture_energy": 30.288,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.041,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.259,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 43.17,
        "rotation_up": 21.02,
        "upward_expansion": 10.68,
        "deceleration": 53.36,
        "rotation_down": 56.17,
        "downward_expansion": 50.02
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.162666,
        32.287818,
        32.922215,
        32.925753
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 32.919998,
    "trend_reference": 32.903334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.000506,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.969573,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267637,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.655487,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.011367,
    "excess_performance": -0.039868,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000506,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001812,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.267637,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.148427,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066555,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.117424,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011367,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.444178,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 106043,
      "relative_activity": 1.451642,
      "balance": 1.444178,
      "dry_up": 1.102417,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034922,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.186872,
      "from_high_reference": -0.072415,
      "from_low_reference": 0.104698
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 32.903334,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.969573,
      "structural_low": 30.07,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.081356,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007199,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.107803,
        "worst_return": -0.017661,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.033917,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010662,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.198093,
        "worst_return": -0.150797,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.037119,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056511,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.326059,
        "worst_return": -0.251822,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.021887,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.156295,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.385381,
        "worst_return": -0.341608,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.219239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064453,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.073388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076281,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.127966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.132014,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01649,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.065984,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015472,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004536,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 16.629999,
        "volume": 7263,
        "typical_volume": 49970.2,
        "trend": 15.822417,
        "fair_value": 17.241282,
        "relative_strength": 16.375503,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "fair_value": 24.378131,
        "relative_strength": 1.195825,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "trend": 32.456196,
        "fair_value": 24.502938,
        "relative_strength": 3.768947,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 57262.4,
        "trend": 32.575363,
        "fair_value": 24.624589,
        "relative_strength": 5.086943,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 75.907839,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 65681.3,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 74.272731,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 69476.05,
        "trend": 32.758833,
        "fair_value": 24.860871,
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        "energy": 71.69203,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 34.82,
        "volume": 95182,
        "typical_volume": 72111.55,
        "trend": 32.843833,
        "fair_value": 24.978483,
        "relative_strength": 2.633717,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 64.443868,
        "energy": 57.994774,
        "activity_lines": [
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          33.221075
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 33.580002,
        "volume": 72082,
        "typical_volume": 74508.8,
        "trend": 32.918167,
        "fair_value": 25.088131,
        "relative_strength": -0.690844,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.869365,
        "energy": 38.027494,
        "activity_lines": [
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          33.550786,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 33.16,
        "volume": 1033,
        "typical_volume": 72358.1,
        "trend": 32.973167,
        "fair_value": 25.192297,
        "relative_strength": -2.917824,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.825014,
        "energy": 22.085879,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 32.880001,
        "volume": 1703,
        "typical_volume": 70987.05,
        "trend": 33.020167,
        "fair_value": 25.297025,
        "relative_strength": -2.756462,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.346273,
        "energy": 18.513643,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.480667,
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          33.520667,
          33.278162
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 31.65,
        "volume": 31454,
        "typical_volume": 70067.5,
        "trend": 32.977167,
        "fair_value": 25.392281,
        "relative_strength": -7.55455,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.31914,
        "energy": 29.021041,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.748667,
          33.495091,
          33.378715,
          33.189764
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 32.465,
        "volume": 1080,
        "typical_volume": 66556.9,
        "trend": 32.953667,
        "fair_value": 25.492666,
        "relative_strength": -6.579803,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.742245,
        "energy": 30.557285,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.497667,
          33.233,
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          33.156721
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 33.07,
        "volume": 57399,
        "typical_volume": 66122.9,
        "trend": 32.984667,
        "fair_value": 25.593035,
        "relative_strength": -3.184828,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.744064,
        "energy": 27.945879,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.605333,
          33.107,
          33.315358,
          33.164226
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 32.365002,
        "volume": 55935,
        "typical_volume": 67543.3,
        "trend": 32.984833,
        "fair_value": 25.691801,
        "relative_strength": -6.100873,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.702102,
        "energy": 35.52657,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.512001,
          32.884001,
          33.242882,
          33.124248
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 31.280001,
        "volume": 20064,
        "typical_volume": 67452.85,
        "trend": 32.9355,
        "fair_value": 25.777987,
        "relative_strength": -10.241047,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.220059,
        "energy": 42.499942,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.110001,
          32.509273,
          33.069905,
          33.014259
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 31.549999,
        "volume": 140086,
        "typical_volume": 69704.45,
        "trend": 32.906334,
        "fair_value": 25.868579,
        "relative_strength": -10.412041,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.243124,
        "energy": 40.604881,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.904667,
          32.244546,
          32.929262,
          32.924871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.919998,
        "volume": 106043,
        "typical_volume": 73050.4,
        "trend": 32.903334,
        "fair_value": 25.969573,
        "relative_strength": -6.655487,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.393923,
        "energy": 30.287943,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.162666,
          32.287818,
          32.922215,
          32.925753
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}