{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cd28c2a-cc81-4e93-8de0-9953cb7551c2", "symbol": "CAMT", "name": "Camtek Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.458, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.684, "architecture_energy": 28.38, "architecture_maturity": 9.397, "architecture_confidence": 50.699, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 11.46, "deceleration": 51.61, "rotation_down": 51.76, "downward_expansion": 50.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 145.736667, 150.497455, 161.314714, 163.047699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 155.35, "trend_reference": 162.238333, "distance_from_trend": -0.042458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.43735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.578161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.613443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042478, "excess_performance": -0.144976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.578161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.754821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.47353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3220718, "relative_activity": 1.353177, "balance": 0.819461, "dry_up": 1.138022, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187813, "annualized_volatility": 0.744435, "from_high_reference": -0.280754, "from_low_reference": 1.050825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.238333, "fair_value_reference": 98.43735, "structural_low": 126.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037347, "worst_return": -0.150376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.117817, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.109088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.07716, "worst_return": -0.158473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.151182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.114517, "worst_return": -0.187847, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.589957, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.490469, "energy": 31.512222, "activity_lines": [ 149.067333, 159.706727, 167.882762, 166.036409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.79, "volume": 1868903, "typical_volume": 2278534.5, "trend": 160.883667, "fair_value": 97.179675, "relative_strength": 0.709734, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.100305, "energy": 41.84425, "activity_lines": [ 146.242667, 156.647091, 165.915381, 165.274968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.46, "volume": 3116278, "typical_volume": 2317333.85, "trend": 161.449, "fair_value": 97.732687, "relative_strength": -10.386516, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.800473, "energy": 49.74142, "activity_lines": [ 141.466, 151.174, 162.485714, 163.441183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.35, "volume": 3220718, "typical_volume": 2380116.7, "trend": 162.238333, "fair_value": 98.43735, "relative_strength": -0.613443, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.683644, "energy": 28.380009, "activity_lines": [ 145.736667, 150.497455, 161.314714, 163.047699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }