{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cd48e64-c76c-42d6-aff9-7abd0b247eec", "symbol": "INTS", "name": "Intensity Therapeutics, Inc. Common stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.924, "architecture_energy": 37.11, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.547, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.41, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 21.08, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 37.45, "downward_expansion": 59.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.335333, 4.306364, 4.417762, 4.864177 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 5.73975, "distance_from_trend": -0.27523, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.357228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.928715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.032773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.523209, "excess_performance": -0.710663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27523, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276228, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.928715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.500328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.523209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.498853, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144680, "relative_activity": 0.827965, "balance": 1.498853, "dry_up": 0.798665, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120335, "annualized_volatility": 0.75725, "from_high_reference": -0.904368, "from_low_reference": 0.185185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.73975, "fair_value_reference": 58.357228, "structural_low": 3.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.102857, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.121881, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.4936, "worst_return": -0.709846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051169, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.136846, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.453571, "worst_return": -0.847098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.231075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.321238, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.379193, "worst_return": -0.841344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.781183, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.969417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.781183, "worst_return": -0.781183, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.872097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.376746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.46766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.310116, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 145.0, "volume": 65601, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 148.75, "volume": 37316, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 141.25, "volume": 53724, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.277777, "energy": 31.656223, "activity_lines": [ 4.44, 4.316727, 4.476571, 4.979489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 144680, "typical_volume": 174741.65, "trend": 5.73975, "fair_value": 58.357228, "relative_strength": -50.032773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.924291, "energy": 37.110028, "activity_lines": [ 4.335333, 4.306364, 4.417762, 4.864177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }