{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cd7810f-b5d6-437f-a310-71384ee3aaae", "symbol": "601811", "name": "Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.428, "architecture_energy": 27.6, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.5, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.04, "rotation_up": 31.55, "upward_expansion": 20.69, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 59.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.132667, 11.921212, 12.20303, 12.59746 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.87, "trend_reference": 13.202108, "distance_from_trend": -0.100901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.600658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.315802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.237636, "excess_performance": -0.194433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12723870, "relative_activity": 0.777614, "balance": 0.529345, "dry_up": 0.805414, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054654, "annualized_volatility": 0.293264, "from_high_reference": -0.288182, "from_low_reference": 0.084018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.202108, "fair_value_reference": 13.600658, "structural_low": 10.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00431, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006083, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.252914, "worst_return": -0.060998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022839, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03783, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.159385, "worst_return": -0.154185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.070636, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.11086, "worst_return": -0.091894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 13983785, "typical_volume": 16789139.2, "trend": 13.283442, "fair_value": 13.610906, "relative_strength": -9.522222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.713639, "energy": 44.113393, "activity_lines": [ 11.852, 11.821171, 12.29449, 12.732119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.58, "volume": 12549860, "typical_volume": 16589328.2, "trend": 13.253775, "fair_value": 13.607591, "relative_strength": -6.168957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.830715, "energy": 25.770364, "activity_lines": [ 12.164667, 11.936207, 12.279998, 12.686736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.87, "volume": 12723870, "typical_volume": 16362716.7, "trend": 13.202108, "fair_value": 13.600658, "relative_strength": -13.315802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.428407, "energy": 27.599873, "activity_lines": [ 12.132667, 11.921212, 12.20303, 12.59746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }