{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ce2d7a9-e9aa-4b87-9cfc-6627ab18ee21", "symbol": "FCSH", "name": "FEDERATED HERMES ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.037, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.537, "architecture_energy": 36.757, "architecture_maturity": 4.056, "architecture_confidence": 93.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.92, "rotation_up": 21.06, "upward_expansion": 8.38, "deceleration": 41.59, "rotation_down": 53.49, "downward_expansion": 81.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.005099, 24.014454, 24.041789, 24.068207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.08, "trend_reference": 24.096733, "distance_from_trend": -0.000694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.76847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.654464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002173, "excess_performance": -0.127798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000694, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7827, "relative_activity": 0.920044, "balance": 0.646619, "dry_up": 0.610101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004734, "annualized_volatility": 0.022448, "from_high_reference": -0.013058, "from_low_reference": 0.025004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.096733, "fair_value_reference": 22.76847, "structural_low": 23.894669, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.012933, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012933, "worst_return": 0.012933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.036534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.155122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036534, "worst_return": 0.036534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.034773, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034773, "worst_return": 0.034773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": -21.209838, "energy": 13.723121, "activity_lines": [ 24.053527, 24.057566, 24.086163, 24.100899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.004278, "volume": 4553, "typical_volume": 8670.3, "trend": 24.099542, "fair_value": 22.688026, "relative_strength": -9.900392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.421738, "energy": 31.580957, "activity_lines": [ 24.038059, 24.04753, 24.075482, 24.094914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.994313, "volume": 4592, "typical_volume": 8383.05, "trend": 24.100148, "fair_value": 22.708105, "relative_strength": -8.253949, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.596073, "energy": 40.170378, "activity_lines": [ 24.019339, 24.036422, 24.065167, 24.088125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.934527, "volume": 3880, "typical_volume": 8259.45, "trend": 24.097553, "fair_value": 22.727833, "relative_strength": -7.696455, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.137099, "energy": 55.294271, "activity_lines": [ 23.98671, 24.016717, 24.050613, 24.07744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.97, "volume": 4462, "typical_volume": 8336.4, "trend": 24.095555, "fair_value": 22.74758, "relative_strength": -8.251207, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.941706, "energy": 56.329465, "activity_lines": [ 23.974916, 24.004837, 24.040708, 24.069211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.08, "volume": 7827, "typical_volume": 8507.2, "trend": 24.096733, "fair_value": 22.76847, "relative_strength": -10.654464, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.537237, "energy": 36.756755, "activity_lines": [ 24.005099, 24.014454, 24.041789, 24.068207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }