{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ce543cb-c760-4251-8e41-5233aa3300cd", "symbol": "MELK3", "name": "Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobili\u00e1rio S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.354, "architecture_energy": 93.306, "architecture_maturity": 41.442, "architecture_confidence": 80.165, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.3, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.39, "downward_expansion": 97.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.895333, 3.011091, 3.126981, 3.227231 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.81, "trend_reference": 3.377521, "distance_from_trend": -0.168029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.815814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.234082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270529, "excess_performance": -0.213481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042254, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1669500, "relative_activity": 0.794625, "balance": 0.566178, "dry_up": 0.930823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044895, "annualized_volatility": 0.20612, "from_high_reference": -0.298789, "from_low_reference": 0.003571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.377521, "fair_value_reference": 2.815814, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.022581, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.00786, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.13467, "worst_return": -0.103125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030311, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.540049, "worst_return": -0.148485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057221, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015854, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4043, "worst_return": -0.035884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.473675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.097636, "energy": 40.837349, "activity_lines": [ 3.218667, 3.223273, 3.278387, 3.368598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 2387100, "typical_volume": 2358715.0, "trend": 3.454414, "fair_value": 2.81173, "relative_strength": -18.152295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.928337, "energy": 68.298056, "activity_lines": [ 3.143333, 3.179091, 3.244138, 3.33747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.9, "volume": 2224700, "typical_volume": 2326990.0, "trend": 3.430763, "fair_value": 2.813324, "relative_strength": -20.324518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.086379, "energy": 87.781635, "activity_lines": [ 3.050667, 3.124182, 3.2057, 3.301702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.87, "volume": 1541300, "typical_volume": 2245420.0, "trend": 3.403525, "fair_value": 2.81462, "relative_strength": -22.456847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.867909, "energy": 92.286325, "activity_lines": [ 2.970667, 3.069455, 3.167691, 3.265523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.81, "volume": 1669500, "typical_volume": 2100990.0, "trend": 3.377521, "fair_value": 2.815814, "relative_strength": -21.234082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.353662, "energy": 93.305664, "activity_lines": [ 2.895333, 3.011091, 3.126981, 3.227231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }