{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ce56f2a-34e4-45bf-b530-5d22c762e7c5", "symbol": "FIVE", "name": "Five Below Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.456, "architecture_energy": 31.751, "architecture_maturity": 58.586, "architecture_confidence": 74.547, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.92, "rotation_up": 62.72, "upward_expansion": 32.2, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 14.87, "downward_expansion": 23.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.639333, 207.516273, 208.959976, 211.490785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 244.37, "trend_reference": 211.778167, "distance_from_trend": 0.153896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.038686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.639641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.925283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.20611, "excess_performance": 0.018657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.639641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132239, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.129253, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.20611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4053398, "relative_activity": 0.700458, "balance": 1.269762, "dry_up": 0.913637, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07651, "annualized_volatility": 0.434002, "from_high_reference": -0.028852, "from_low_reference": 0.859741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 211.778167, "fair_value_reference": 149.038686, "structural_low": 173.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005635, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.022198, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.422868, "worst_return": -0.339543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.107666, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.152268, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.78429, "worst_return": -0.522202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.268235, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.085235, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.114208, "worst_return": -0.337546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 203.19, "volume": 5394067, "typical_volume": 6083450.35, "trend": 209.362167, "fair_value": 148.585865, "relative_strength": 0.374811, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.366205, "energy": 30.058411, "activity_lines": [ 196.524667, 196.141727, 205.475119, 208.781989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 217.13, "volume": 5053180, "typical_volume": 6101493.4, "trend": 210.1515, "fair_value": 148.708109, "relative_strength": 6.162167, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.242673, "energy": 17.056763, "activity_lines": [ 204.500667, 199.331091, 205.936524, 209.28314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 244.37, "volume": 4053398, "typical_volume": 5786786.25, "trend": 211.778167, "fair_value": 149.038686, "relative_strength": 12.925283, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.455811, "energy": 31.750744, "activity_lines": [ 219.639333, 207.516273, 208.959976, 211.490785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }