{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ce80b93-96c5-4bc7-b90b-145384feed36", "symbol": "600196", "name": "Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.643, "architecture_energy": 19.61, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.588, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.93, "rotation_up": 28.3, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 55.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.170098, 22.800159, 23.122779, 23.779351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.75, "trend_reference": 24.735616, "distance_from_trend": -0.039846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.242176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.37507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109486, "excess_performance": -0.066282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109486, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124595408, "relative_activity": 1.334709, "balance": 0.550773, "dry_up": 1.594191, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057646, "annualized_volatility": 0.223732, "from_high_reference": -0.282477, "from_low_reference": 0.139893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.735616, "fair_value_reference": 25.242176, "structural_low": 20.835289, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.023068, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.021874, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.241881, "worst_return": -0.264859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.047059, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.052766, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.177778, "worst_return": -0.140686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.110021, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.044134, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.262522, "worst_return": -0.200575, "sufficient": true 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"fair_value": 25.41192, "relative_strength": -14.657173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.921683, "energy": 54.669727, "activity_lines": [ 22.351041, 22.478196, 23.51872, 24.290648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.997442, "volume": 234352350, "typical_volume": 85523629.9, "trend": 25.115282, "fair_value": 25.368499, "relative_strength": -9.306584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.285151, "energy": 39.819737, "activity_lines": [ 22.621452, 22.504076, 23.389519, 24.142653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 147656829, "typical_volume": 88614918.5, "trend": 24.948949, "fair_value": 25.321406, "relative_strength": -12.908304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.526504, "energy": 29.97941, "activity_lines": [ 22.610221, 22.432649, 23.208574, 23.959732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.23, "volume": 88668215, "typical_volume": 89926533.25, "trend": 24.826949, "fair_value": 25.279537, "relative_strength": -9.29231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.231733, "energy": 23.49415, "activity_lines": [ 22.882989, 22.567586, 23.135391, 23.848832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.75, "volume": 124595408, "typical_volume": 93350268.4, "trend": 24.735616, "fair_value": 25.242176, "relative_strength": -9.37507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.643448, "energy": 19.609883, "activity_lines": [ 23.170098, 22.800159, 23.122779, 23.779351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }