{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ce8ef37-ad63-45d8-9c3c-c9e79196bbf9", "symbol": "HWDE", "name": "HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.926, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.673, "architecture_energy": 63.937, "architecture_maturity": 63.083, "architecture_confidence": 63.066, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 81.16, "deceleration": 69.05, "rotation_down": 27.3, "downward_expansion": 10.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.433999, 42.22109, 41.767833, 41.026602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.474998, "trend_reference": 40.207167, "distance_from_trend": 0.081275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.44362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299949, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.486161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115315, "excess_performance": -0.055576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.450154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114580, "relative_activity": 1.267399, "balance": 1.450154, "dry_up": 1.102735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017375, "annualized_volatility": 0.12436, "from_high_reference": -0.001034, "from_low_reference": 0.216424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.207167, "fair_value_reference": 33.44362, "structural_low": 36.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.010647, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.009513, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.087698, "worst_return": -0.059684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048719, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.015069, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.065317, "worst_return": -0.047506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046463, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.117907, "worst_return": 0.011134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07193, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.841294, "energy": 59.159171, "activity_lines": [ 41.740333, 41.599, 40.583929, 40.053162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 42.25, "volume": 23246, "typical_volume": 117538.6, "trend": 39.587, "fair_value": 32.928331, "relative_strength": -6.295386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.53713, "energy": 62.941184, "activity_lines": [ 41.885, 41.770455, 40.816143, 40.233205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.369999, "volume": 65200, "typical_volume": 116141.2, "trend": 39.7255, "fair_value": 33.03253, "relative_strength": -5.514651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.359471, "energy": 68.686843, "activity_lines": [ 42.063333, 41.922636, 41.044072, 40.412753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.924999, "volume": 116072, "typical_volume": 119232.2, "trend": 39.845667, "fair_value": 33.13237, "relative_strength": -5.044973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.600003, "energy": 60.448081, "activity_lines": [ 42.051999, 41.952727, 41.214952, 40.554656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.904999, "volume": 106014, "typical_volume": 113551.3, "trend": 39.954334, "fair_value": 33.230543, "relative_strength": -4.796851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.226542, "energy": 58.00612, "activity_lines": [ 42.018666, 41.96309, 41.371381, 40.687516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.799999, "volume": 62108, "typical_volume": 95198.65, "trend": 40.064834, "fair_value": 33.330767, "relative_strength": -5.556386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.265569, "energy": 49.592395, "activity_lines": [ 41.958999, 41.940727, 41.499738, 40.806591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.474998, "volume": 114580, "typical_volume": 90405.65, "trend": 40.207167, "fair_value": 33.44362, "relative_strength": -4.486161, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.672532, "energy": 63.93742, "activity_lines": [ 42.433999, 42.22109, 41.767833, 41.026602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }