{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ceb7c98-ba93-434f-883d-0e154df664db", "symbol": "REFL", "name": "ReFuels N.V.", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.578, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.527, "architecture_energy": 27.628, "architecture_maturity": 14.385, "architecture_confidence": 80.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.42, "rotation_up": 29.3, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 61.36, "rotation_down": 43.32, "downward_expansion": 42.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.76, 15.830909, 16.508095, 16.612903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.3, "trend_reference": 16.353333, "distance_from_trend": -0.064411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.613147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.407803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077465, "excess_performance": -0.047529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.472287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 543, "relative_activity": 0.040505, "balance": 1.472287, "dry_up": 0.356189, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067873, "annualized_volatility": 0.506508, "from_high_reference": -0.316964, "from_low_reference": 0.429907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.353333, "fair_value_reference": 17.613147, "structural_low": 13.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03973, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034901, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135484, "worst_return": -0.144578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.078974, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110714, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070968, "worst_return": -0.228916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.174194, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.174194, "worst_return": -0.174194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"direction": -24.959264, "energy": 54.408012, "activity_lines": [ 15.733333, 16.070909, 16.882857, 16.691613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 9949, "typical_volume": 15548.5, "trend": 16.276667, "fair_value": 17.822763, "relative_strength": -4.820179, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.732103, "energy": 37.097505, "activity_lines": [ 15.866666, 16.036364, 16.805714, 16.69871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 6674, "typical_volume": 14782.65, "trend": 16.353333, "fair_value": 17.720199, "relative_strength": -6.51274, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.383509, "energy": 21.775089, "activity_lines": [ 15.94, 15.985454, 16.693809, 16.68086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 543, "typical_volume": 13405.8, "trend": 16.353333, "fair_value": 17.613147, "relative_strength": -10.407803, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.52699, "energy": 27.628468, "activity_lines": [ 15.76, 15.830909, 16.508095, 16.612903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }