{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ced600f-b8b7-46d4-974b-a5685be2c11e", "symbol": "VOLTAS", "name": "Voltas Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.368, "architecture_energy": 15.075, "architecture_maturity": 19.646, "architecture_confidence": 57.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.5, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 24.71, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 32.89, "downward_expansion": 51.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1312.933349, 1310.024267, 1309.466431, 1328.148387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1285.0, "trend_reference": 1355.338834, "distance_from_trend": -0.051898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1322.634411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.341544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10453, "excess_performance": -0.060821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2649956, "relative_activity": 0.655105, "balance": 1.10564, "dry_up": 0.731761, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057578, "annualized_volatility": 0.318003, "from_high_reference": -0.187994, "from_low_reference": 0.082743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1355.338834, "fair_value_reference": 1322.634411, "structural_low": 1186.800049, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.032007, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.00073, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.175766, "worst_return": -0.133811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002932, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.019328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268319, "worst_return": -0.085029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048226, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026726, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.257926, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164922, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033035, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 802.525146, "volume": 5481002, "typical_volume": 6565731.1, "trend": 803.710866, "fair_value": 945.774551, "relative_strength": -8.799944, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.548563, "energy": 15.100232, "activity_lines": [ 1315.266675, 1307.509628, 1311.97038, 1335.391891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1328.900024, "volume": 2252908, "typical_volume": 4100751.7, "trend": 1361.398836, "fair_value": 1319.659761, "relative_strength": -1.400045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.297007, "energy": 11.709037, "activity_lines": [ 1322.300016, 1313.346688, 1312.605788, 1333.077344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1285.0, "volume": 2649956, "typical_volume": 4045087.9, "trend": 1355.338834, "fair_value": 1322.634411, "relative_strength": -5.341544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.368366, "energy": 15.075401, "activity_lines": [ 1312.933349, 1310.024267, 1309.466431, 1328.148387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }