{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cee537b-b5de-4f7b-b288-10b5195f23b0", "symbol": "HST", "name": "Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng TECH ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.965, "architecture_energy": 16.122, "architecture_maturity": 98.749, "architecture_confidence": 65.272, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.13, "rotation_up": 34.72, "upward_expansion": 22.03, "deceleration": 41.02, "rotation_down": 22.03, "downward_expansion": 53.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7634, 0.752436, 0.75949, 0.768843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.772, "trend_reference": 0.7923, "distance_from_trend": -0.025622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.755987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.801106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093897, "excess_performance": -0.248732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10606866, "relative_activity": 0.776714, "balance": 0.938946, "dry_up": 1.197669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049024, "annualized_volatility": 0.224393, "from_high_reference": -0.287823, "from_low_reference": 0.123726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7923, "fair_value_reference": 0.755987, "structural_low": 0.687, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.026834, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.007147, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.271357, "worst_return": -0.110795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041193, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.0274, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.261307, "worst_return": -0.133697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.572864, "worst_return": -0.098011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -26.560994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.954368, "energy": 45.345475, "activity_lines": [ 0.738867, 0.746036, 0.76019, 0.776161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.747, "volume": 21379290, "typical_volume": 14273457.35, "trend": 0.802167, "fair_value": 0.755436, "relative_strength": -26.907975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.358477, "energy": 32.409621, "activity_lines": [ 0.743267, 0.744491, 0.7582, 0.772286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.774, "volume": 15877581, "typical_volume": 14194269.35, "trend": 0.7972, "fair_value": 0.755628, "relative_strength": -24.237244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.699376, "energy": 17.687266, "activity_lines": [ 0.7564, 0.748673, 0.758886, 0.770469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.772, "volume": 10606866, "typical_volume": 13656073.1, "trend": 0.7923, "fair_value": 0.755987, "relative_strength": -24.801106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.964755, "energy": 16.122328, "activity_lines": [ 0.7634, 0.752436, 0.75949, 0.768843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }