{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cf00aa1-af39-4765-9674-8a8874ceaa83", "symbol": "RXI", "name": "iShares Global Consumer Discretionary ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.617, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.524, "architecture_energy": 19.457, "architecture_maturity": 16.076, "architecture_confidence": 48.072, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 39.82, "upward_expansion": 33.68, "deceleration": 44.55, "rotation_down": 23.7, "downward_expansion": 49.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3440.200033, 3418.424796, 3406.711408, 3416.344665 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3535.600098, "trend_reference": 3465.03558, "distance_from_trend": 0.020365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3300.547515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071216, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.868053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05667, "excess_performance": -0.002003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071216, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014963, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.049587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24, "relative_activity": 0.355292, "balance": 2.049587, "dry_up": 1.139896, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014722, "annualized_volatility": 0.16556, "from_high_reference": -0.0701, "from_low_reference": 0.074487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3465.03558, "fair_value_reference": 3300.547515, "structural_low": 3290.499268, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005497, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.069136, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000386, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082086, "worst_return": -0.030945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005553, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068949, "worst_return": -0.039612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 3484.04891, "fair_value": 3290.689837, "relative_strength": -8.690688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.409891, "energy": 31.551629, "activity_lines": [ 3392.266667, 3398.571964, 3391.753087, 3418.316561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3390.0, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 66.35, "trend": 3472.115576, "fair_value": 3295.152009, "relative_strength": -8.190694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.695615, "energy": 17.677795, "activity_lines": [ 3393.133333, 3394.891908, 3392.045291, 3412.24889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3535.600098, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 67.55, "trend": 3465.03558, "fair_value": 3300.547515, "relative_strength": -3.868053, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.524435, "energy": 19.457434, "activity_lines": [ 3440.200033, 3418.424796, 3406.711408, 3416.344665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }