{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cf02ae2-1ff8-4e98-8e46-f720891d67b2", "symbol": "IREN", "name": "IREN Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.56, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.799, "architecture_energy": 50.136, "architecture_maturity": 14.856, "architecture_confidence": 74.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.44, "rotation_up": 8.34, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 68.49, "downward_expansion": 79.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.196, 41.071818, 46.188905, 46.018366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.23, "trend_reference": 46.362333, "distance_from_trend": -0.1107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.540128, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.00729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.623274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014344, "excess_performance": -0.201797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.00729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.60015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.625806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181843054, "relative_activity": 0.854419, "balance": 0.988894, "dry_up": 1.095485, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.265366, "annualized_volatility": 0.945405, "from_high_reference": -0.46364, "from_low_reference": 1.394309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.362333, "fair_value_reference": 20.540128, "structural_low": 28.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008671, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015555, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.595989, "worst_return": -0.21914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.585798, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.439813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.789017, "worst_return": 0.363384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.618497, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.406117, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.710125, "worst_return": -0.046296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006975, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.371331, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.208531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.41, "volume": 7302749, "typical_volume": 5911583.0, "trend": 3.989167, "fair_value": 6.600435, "relative_strength": 12.325924, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.298049, "energy": 21.082358, 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48.494796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.62, "volume": 196230614, "typical_volume": 200605613.05, "trend": 46.826667, "fair_value": 19.916026, "relative_strength": -30.469067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.304689, "energy": 35.576839, "activity_lines": [ 40.233333, 46.922182, 48.672762, 47.629204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.07, "volume": 262585791, "typical_volume": 204840904.95, "trend": 46.719, "fair_value": 20.111859, "relative_strength": -22.577894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.36436, "energy": 45.270252, "activity_lines": [ 37.873333, 44.422545, 47.714905, 46.999742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.8, "volume": 291933079, "typical_volume": 211285061.8, "trend": 46.522333, "fair_value": 20.312115, "relative_strength": -24.095495, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.176259, "energy": 51.22582, "activity_lines": [ 36.949333, 42.162364, 46.729571, 46.359806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.23, "volume": 181843054, "typical_volume": 212826464.15, "trend": 46.362333, "fair_value": 20.540128, "relative_strength": -19.623274, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.799426, "energy": 50.136394, "activity_lines": [ 38.196, 41.071818, 46.188905, 46.018366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }