{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cf0582e-4d32-4189-b3b7-82d3e73422df", "symbol": "AMD", "name": "Arrow Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.333, "architecture_energy": 42.742, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.476, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.64, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.05, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005567, 0.004873, 0.006562, 0.00949 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.013117, "distance_from_trend": -0.618806, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.040628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.876933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.36747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.75, "excess_performance": -0.813706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.618806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.876933, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.703675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.75, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4862363, "relative_activity": 0.414361, "balance": 0.905678, "dry_up": 2.13442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.330769, "annualized_volatility": 1.608886, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013117, "fair_value_reference": 0.040628, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.062271, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.064871, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.113462, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.101237, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.85, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.138462, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.145009, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.042404, "relative_strength": -79.600149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.395265, "energy": 68.380596, "activity_lines": [ 0.003367, 0.004182, 0.008738, 0.011699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.005, "volume": 45908365, "typical_volume": 9020702.25, "trend": 0.014517, "fair_value": 0.041923, "relative_strength": -70.324071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.211156, "energy": 65.906953, "activity_lines": [ 0.003867, 0.004173, 0.008021, 0.011053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 26498500, "typical_volume": 10345627.25, "trend": 0.014083, "fair_value": 0.041455, "relative_strength": -57.696924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.599905, "energy": 54.75625, "activity_lines": [ 0.004967, 0.004582, 0.007567, 0.010568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 22916952, "typical_volume": 11491474.85, "trend": 0.013617, "fair_value": 0.040981, "relative_strength": -63.963534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.735642, "energy": 42.561473, "activity_lines": [ 0.005533, 0.004809, 0.007079, 0.010046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 4862363, "typical_volume": 11734593.0, "trend": 0.013117, "fair_value": 0.040628, "relative_strength": -70.36747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.333342, "energy": 42.741892, "activity_lines": [ 0.005567, 0.004873, 0.006562, 0.00949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }