{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cf2d6d7-c1d4-4a3f-94ea-cc5799a0fc42", "symbol": "SRFM", "name": "Surf Air Mobility Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.805, "architecture_energy": 64.86, "architecture_maturity": 90.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.826, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 16.63, "upward_expansion": 13.1, "deceleration": 41.47, "rotation_down": 64.57, "downward_expansion": 86.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.808707, 0.874276, 0.993849, 1.121142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.863, "trend_reference": 1.375577, "distance_from_trend": -0.372627, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.010264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.784802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.939628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.609502, "excess_performance": -0.735127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.372627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.784802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.669396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.609502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.884208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9549972, "relative_activity": 0.366842, "balance": 1.884208, "dry_up": 0.373403, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.249318, "annualized_volatility": 0.921725, "from_high_reference": -0.860159, "from_low_reference": 0.297744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.375577, "fair_value_reference": 4.010264, "structural_low": 0.665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.136087, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.143524, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 3.251208, "worst_return": -0.382979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.260274, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.279049, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.697318, "worst_return": -0.304762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.239026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.354774, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007663, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.294261, "energy": 61.864893, "activity_lines": [ 0.842353, 0.941351, 1.04982, 1.207312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7645, "volume": 6948290, "typical_volume": 26267337.45, "trend": 1.454477, "fair_value": 4.065309, "relative_strength": -70.55934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.972382, "energy": 67.234068, "activity_lines": [ 0.804533, 0.894536, 1.015488, 1.159302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.863, "volume": 9549972, "typical_volume": 26032964.8, "trend": 1.375577, "fair_value": 4.010264, "relative_strength": -66.939628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.805015, "energy": 64.860146, "activity_lines": [ 0.808707, 0.874276, 0.993849, 1.121142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }