{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cf7ab9e-813f-44a2-a9eb-70b568f55db0", "symbol": "SMCI", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Long Super Micro Computer (SMCI) ETP Securities", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.307, "architecture_energy": 41.89, "architecture_maturity": 31.755, "architecture_confidence": 81.692, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 15.36, "upward_expansion": 4.92, "deceleration": 52.57, "rotation_down": 59.93, "downward_expansion": 78.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.690633, 3.962573, 5.21576, 5.632124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.0305, "trend_reference": 6.4269, "distance_from_trend": -0.37287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.714923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.706123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.654614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.598316, "excess_performance": -0.769207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.37287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.706123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.706546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.598316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.905145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76889, "relative_activity": 0.711573, "balance": 1.905145, "dry_up": 1.299658, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.534482, "annualized_volatility": 2.264614, "from_high_reference": -0.891726, "from_low_reference": 0.632442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.4269, "fair_value_reference": 13.714923, "structural_low": 2.469, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032815, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.069419, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.537841, "worst_return": -0.598884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.14768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073306, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.46329, "worst_return": -0.16793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.21756, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21756, "worst_return": 0.21756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.311265, "energy": 65.85514, "activity_lines": [ 3.7041, 4.739545, 5.570724, 6.017243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3475, "volume": 133603, "typical_volume": 109597.55, "trend": 6.57725, "fair_value": 13.796994, "relative_strength": -75.779978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.512538, "energy": 52.010603, "activity_lines": [ 3.5381, 4.249536, 5.349743, 5.79643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0305, "volume": 76889, "typical_volume": 108055.0, "trend": 6.4269, "fair_value": 13.714923, "relative_strength": -70.654614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.3071, "energy": 41.889684, "activity_lines": [ 3.690633, 3.962573, 5.21576, 5.632124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }