{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7cff7ee1-d10a-4097-a43b-c0de41e17367", "symbol": "WSCSR", "name": "UBS MSCI World Small Cap Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.092, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.506, "architecture_energy": 86.908, "architecture_maturity": 32.32, "architecture_confidence": 75.981, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 76.42, "upward_expansion": 94.06, "deceleration": 44.75, "rotation_down": 16.45, "downward_expansion": 18.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.317467, 12.213455, 12.036886, 11.880624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.672, "trend_reference": 11.7442, "distance_from_trend": 0.079001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.98879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.70765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080675, "excess_performance": -0.002208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04253, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007077, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5200, "relative_activity": 2.254987, "balance": 1.217831, "dry_up": 1.75683, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015759, "annualized_volatility": 0.150563, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.244549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.7442, "fair_value_reference": 9.98879, "structural_low": 10.748, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.009734, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003646, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.049485, "worst_return": -0.06411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019682, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.001014, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.076359, "worst_return": -0.063694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071926, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002698, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.113396, "worst_return": -0.01353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.868, "volume": 3936, "typical_volume": 1873.6, "trend": 11.4426, "fair_value": 9.806029, "relative_strength": 0.09231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.020384, "energy": 59.095833, "activity_lines": [ 11.853733, 11.800073, 11.623648, 11.57003 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.992, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 1858.65, "trend": 11.491333, "fair_value": 9.830032, "relative_strength": 0.558684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.745638, "energy": 71.953182, "activity_lines": [ 11.9164, 11.843964, 11.663381, 11.605475 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.988, "volume": 1677, "typical_volume": 1942.5, "trend": 11.5268, "fair_value": 9.852363, "relative_strength": -2.314587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.965097, "energy": 69.922023, "activity_lines": [ 11.950533, 11.877455, 11.701152, 11.637518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.262, "volume": 3638, "typical_volume": 1834.15, "trend": 11.570333, "fair_value": 9.876952, "relative_strength": -1.810262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.532177, "energy": 81.518557, "activity_lines": [ 12.057867, 11.957855, 11.763771, 11.684951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.126, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1844.15, "trend": 11.6054, "fair_value": 9.898486, "relative_strength": -1.588647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.510811, "energy": 80.553713, "activity_lines": [ 12.0996, 12.003236, 11.811067, 11.7208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.196, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1745.75, "trend": 11.6408, "fair_value": 9.92025, "relative_strength": -1.777178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.949035, "energy": 87.849749, "activity_lines": [ 12.1492, 12.052073, 11.864029, 11.758903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.028, "volume": 11005, "typical_volume": 2296.0, "trend": 11.6692, "fair_value": 9.940574, "relative_strength": -2.962994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.176, "energy": 77.717436, "activity_lines": [ 12.120933, 12.064727, 11.899752, 11.783884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2296.0, "trend": 11.703333, "fair_value": 9.962864, "relative_strength": -1.671212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.608592, "energy": 65.032273, "activity_lines": [ 12.1476, 12.100582, 11.94879, 11.818129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.672, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 2306.0, "trend": 11.7442, "fair_value": 9.98879, "relative_strength": 0.70765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.506112, "energy": 86.90773, "activity_lines": [ 12.317467, 12.213455, 12.036886, 11.880624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }