{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d07809c-7457-44aa-8f3c-2497c5d8c89b", "symbol": "COROMANDEL", "name": "Coromandel International Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.838, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.097, "architecture_energy": 22.802, "architecture_maturity": 11.152, "architecture_confidence": 64.947, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 55.24, "upward_expansion": 38.4, "deceleration": 31.54, "rotation_down": 17.99, "downward_expansion": 20.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2047.84598, 2030.149978, 1980.963088, 1991.315476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2069.300049, "trend_reference": 2038.084558, "distance_from_trend": 0.015316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1763.379881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173485, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.09371, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088535, "excess_performance": -0.044825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025646, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559498, "relative_activity": 0.454314, "balance": 0.369482, "dry_up": 0.536536, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049435, "annualized_volatility": 0.312651, "from_high_reference": -0.169017, "from_low_reference": 0.202942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2038.084558, "fair_value_reference": 1763.379881, "structural_low": 1720.199951, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015956, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.004908, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.122326, "worst_return": -0.159926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018779, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039645, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.376712, "worst_return": -0.117388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.197844, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.160013, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.35396, "worst_return": -0.100814, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 2020.110913, 1987.318672, 1959.192978, 1988.424485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2073.600098, "volume": 566070, "typical_volume": 1287192.6, "trend": 2045.752437, "fair_value": 1756.843607, "relative_strength": -1.462036, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.490476, "energy": 22.272028, "activity_lines": [ 2037.199984, 2011.436148, 1970.452321, 1989.796275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2069.300049, "volume": 559498, "typical_volume": 1231523.3, "trend": 2038.084558, "fair_value": 1763.379881, "relative_strength": -2.09371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.097491, "energy": 22.801659, "activity_lines": [ 2047.84598, 2030.149978, 1980.963088, 1991.315476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }