{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d0c1376-2cf8-4e9f-88ef-ace11f02520c", "symbol": "VAPX", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.808, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.414, "architecture_energy": 21.475, "architecture_maturity": 64.102, "architecture_confidence": 78.95, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.12, "rotation_up": 15.66, "upward_expansion": 41.6, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 42.46, "downward_expansion": 33.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.195417, 33.272686, 33.475236, 32.520381 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.282501, "trend_reference": 31.077302, "distance_from_trend": 0.038781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.705519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.487295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.617735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190678, "excess_performance": 0.139443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.487295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086177, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.796131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380853, "relative_activity": 0.806859, "balance": 0.796131, "dry_up": 0.697551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069688, "annualized_volatility": 0.323495, "from_high_reference": -0.146643, "from_low_reference": 0.547029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.077302, "fair_value_reference": 21.705519, "structural_low": 26.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007635, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123992, "worst_return": -0.02193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026324, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00382, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.261123, "worst_return": -0.026827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018825, "worst_return": -0.03628, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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32.111669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.7125, "volume": 263371, "typical_volume": 463404.2, "trend": 30.311388, "fair_value": 21.436533, "relative_strength": 11.265225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.436678, "energy": 24.020249, "activity_lines": [ 33.950666, 34.573467, 33.508313, 32.219895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.44125, "volume": 285205, "typical_volume": 459914.3, "trend": 30.601221, "fair_value": 21.525589, "relative_strength": 11.808793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.049215, "energy": 26.478083, "activity_lines": [ 33.143083, 34.169232, 33.546067, 32.357306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.690001, "volume": 387601, "typical_volume": 463711.25, "trend": 30.84361, "fair_value": 21.612407, "relative_strength": 7.418148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.331109, "energy": 22.064414, "activity_lines": [ 32.418167, 33.648168, 33.491549, 32.42755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.282501, "volume": 380853, "typical_volume": 472019.5, "trend": 31.077302, "fair_value": 21.705519, "relative_strength": 8.617735, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.414435, "energy": 21.475165, "activity_lines": [ 32.195417, 33.272686, 33.475236, 32.520381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }