{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d0c6341-9873-45ae-b673-cd3ffbb8b3c5", "symbol": "BNED", "name": "Barnes & Noble Education Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 63.464, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.78, "architecture_energy": 40.912, "architecture_maturity": 55.081, "architecture_confidence": 85.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.71, "rotation_up": 53.3, "upward_expansion": 80.89, "deceleration": 63.46, "rotation_down": 23.28, "downward_expansion": 5.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.495202, 12.375115, 11.611001, 10.980213 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.8, "trend_reference": 10.19543, "distance_from_trend": 0.255465, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.04316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.621576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.428571, "excess_performance": 0.302947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.255465, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153387, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.196216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205101, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.428571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813130, "relative_activity": 0.571153, "balance": 1.561871, "dry_up": 1.032221, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123534, "annualized_volatility": 0.583036, "from_high_reference": -0.126658, "from_low_reference": 1.169492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.19543, "fair_value_reference": 32.04316, "structural_low": 7.261, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023049, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.052111, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.151727, "worst_return": -0.262324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076505, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.387588, "worst_return": -0.434599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.228767, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.316851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.215457, "worst_return": -0.242077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.262324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-19", 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"typical_volume": 1453040.05, "trend": 9.844096, "fair_value": 34.709057, "relative_strength": 23.738987, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.720775, "energy": 70.949218, "activity_lines": [ 12.593037, 11.916364, 11.103852, 10.508511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.88, "volume": 1761190, "typical_volume": 1481104.35, "trend": 9.91843, "fair_value": 33.983929, "relative_strength": 17.124135, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.755876, "energy": 45.981497, "activity_lines": [ 12.410804, 12.032493, 11.243362, 10.63986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.44, "volume": 1109031, "typical_volume": 1454488.8, "trend": 10.046096, "fair_value": 33.01239, "relative_strength": 20.803365, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.726912, "energy": 42.850297, "activity_lines": [ 12.352578, 12.197531, 11.419443, 10.802542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.8, "volume": 813130, "typical_volume": 1423664.35, "trend": 10.19543, "fair_value": 32.04316, "relative_strength": 19.621576, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.780037, "energy": 40.91215, "activity_lines": [ 12.495202, 12.375115, 11.611001, 10.980213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }