{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d0c7d78-3f92-402a-a057-b1f1ea167a5a", "symbol": "FSTR", "name": "LB Foster Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.62, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.132, "architecture_energy": 30.301, "architecture_maturity": 61.451, "architecture_confidence": 94.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.4, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 55.57, "deceleration": 92.98, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 21.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.632, 42.168727, 40.743143, 38.292387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 41.27, "trend_reference": 35.351, "distance_from_trend": 0.167435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.520641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.617122, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.167287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.300252, "excess_performance": 0.112798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.617122, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204925, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279654, "relative_activity": 0.566231, "balance": 1.32292, "dry_up": 0.674968, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07802, "annualized_volatility": 0.52752, "from_high_reference": -0.099103, "from_low_reference": 0.904564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.351, "fair_value_reference": 25.520641, "structural_low": 26.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011503, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019016, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.203535, "worst_return": -0.268488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020429, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273701, "worst_return": -0.386608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.302089, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.115374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.647213, "worst_return": -0.182602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034217, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.02479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003404, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.89, "volume": 309997, "typical_volume": 112944.9, "trend": 13.022333, "fair_value": 14.341122, "relative_strength": 36.538482, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": 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24.83391, "relative_strength": 21.91922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.464364, "energy": 56.626639, "activity_lines": [ 43.11, 42.375818, 38.760619, 36.367323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.93, "volume": 328674, "typical_volume": 466093.25, "trend": 33.985833, "fair_value": 25.013397, "relative_strength": 24.380949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.954339, "energy": 49.612104, "activity_lines": [ 42.717333, 42.410545, 39.368429, 36.909043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.4, "volume": 373365, "typical_volume": 476565.95, "trend": 34.450333, "fair_value": 25.195962, "relative_strength": 26.893464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.780723, "energy": 38.724092, "activity_lines": [ 42.510667, 42.537455, 39.967667, 37.451892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.13, "volume": 351739, "typical_volume": 488294.6, "trend": 34.922, "fair_value": 25.366026, "relative_strength": 21.494766, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.314053, "energy": 31.841817, "activity_lines": [ 41.926667, 42.367818, 40.38181, 37.882839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.27, "volume": 279654, "typical_volume": 493886.95, "trend": 35.351, "fair_value": 25.520641, "relative_strength": 15.167287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.13183, "energy": 30.300869, "activity_lines": [ 41.632, 42.168727, 40.743143, 38.292387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }