{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d0ddee7-46f6-4e9c-9664-91334a1409fe", "symbol": "XBTI", "name": "DDA Physical Bitcoin ETP A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.939, "architecture_energy": 57.352, "architecture_maturity": 41.674, "architecture_confidence": 60.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.96, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 39.91, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.27412, 5.309905, 5.402087 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.2791, "trend_reference": 5.682093, "distance_from_trend": -0.070923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.515368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.8865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.270197, "excess_performance": -0.323509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010494, "annualized_volatility": 0.4155, "from_high_reference": -0.457608, "from_low_reference": 0.054723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.682093, "fair_value_reference": 6.515368, "structural_low": 5.0052, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.018534, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15427, "worst_return": -0.07688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.086397, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.480911, "worst_return": -0.12099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130852, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.237977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423907, "worst_return": -0.040151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.02978, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.995747, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.444715, "worst_return": 0.614846, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.744436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136002, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044434, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.393005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.5639, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1516.15, "trend": 2.4545, "fair_value": 2.917246, "relative_strength": 13.801186, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.797029, "energy": 20.074437, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.330983, "energy": 87.161897, "activity_lines": [ 5.254073, 5.310065, 5.377063, 5.645212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 250.0, "trend": 6.00527, "fair_value": 6.431079, "relative_strength": -31.905409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.248356, "energy": 66.964371, "activity_lines": [ 5.26084, 5.296238, 5.356746, 5.593968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 5.931907, "fair_value": 6.44734, "relative_strength": -29.747283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.997566, "energy": 66.37127, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.285545, 5.345736, 5.547118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 5.872323, "fair_value": 6.464255, "relative_strength": -28.78584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.171343, "energy": 61.597078, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.277987, 5.335547, 5.505002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 5.81274, "fair_value": 6.481262, "relative_strength": -28.119265, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.426607, "energy": 59.900664, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.273564, 5.326179, 5.466729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 5.747417, "fair_value": 6.498413, "relative_strength": -28.22621, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.637524, "energy": 58.287595, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.272275, 5.317631, 5.432301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200.0, "trend": 5.682093, "fair_value": 6.515368, "relative_strength": -28.8865, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.938936, "energy": 57.351586, "activity_lines": [ 5.2791, 5.27412, 5.309905, 5.402087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }