{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d1a9483-821e-4275-b3ea-ed6c74d27b0f", "symbol": "FWRG", "name": "First Watch Restaurant Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.048, "architecture_energy": 7.119, "architecture_maturity": 19.687, "architecture_confidence": 70.101, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.47, "rotation_up": 23.24, "upward_expansion": 26.71, "deceleration": 41.21, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 44.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.481333, 12.464, 12.22419, 12.322215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.42, "trend_reference": 12.925333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.302821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.547578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.291904, "excess_performance": -0.479358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.282198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037058, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098378, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291904, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9209483, "relative_activity": 1.418476, "balance": 0.927849, "dry_up": 0.870317, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108634, "annualized_volatility": 0.668734, "from_high_reference": -0.364055, "from_low_reference": 0.245737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.925333, "fair_value_reference": 17.302821, "structural_low": 9.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00321, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.030737, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.145658, "worst_return": -0.262828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077275, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.346218, "worst_return": -0.310148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026014, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.211111, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.147855, "worst_return": -0.27392, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.199633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00321, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.0, "volume": 1056081, "typical_volume": 1290398.05, "trend": 16.710333, "fair_value": 16.194646, "relative_strength": -4.359018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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12.612989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.09, "volume": 5330362, "typical_volume": 7770601.2, "trend": 13.496, "fair_value": 17.502179, "relative_strength": -25.439803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.473593, "energy": 12.983085, "activity_lines": [ 12.453333, 12.053455, 12.017429, 12.576882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.46, "volume": 4109015, "typical_volume": 7806052.65, "trend": 13.366, "fair_value": 17.464295, "relative_strength": -29.492073, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.333253, "energy": 14.383194, "activity_lines": [ 12.592667, 12.141636, 12.045286, 12.510043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.45, "volume": 4526607, "typical_volume": 6914288.75, "trend": 13.240667, "fair_value": 17.424359, "relative_strength": -25.775317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.611238, "energy": 14.617159, "activity_lines": [ 12.576667, 12.239455, 12.088667, 12.450946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.12, "volume": 3551980, "typical_volume": 6496665.8, "trend": 13.114333, "fair_value": 17.384679, "relative_strength": -25.806981, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.412422, "energy": 11.039888, "activity_lines": [ 12.446667, 12.270909, 12.100667, 12.378645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.85, "volume": 5314125, "typical_volume": 6333836.05, "trend": 13.030333, "fair_value": 17.34359, "relative_strength": -21.021984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.50325, "energy": 6.236549, "activity_lines": [ 12.539333, 12.418909, 12.186048, 12.361591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.42, "volume": 9209483, "typical_volume": 6492517.55, "trend": 12.925333, "fair_value": 17.302821, "relative_strength": -26.547578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.047616, "energy": 7.118669, "activity_lines": [ 12.481333, 12.464, 12.22419, 12.322215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }