{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d25b55e-0670-47e6-b7c1-d65c7494eb1f", "symbol": "UXOC", "name": "FT Vest U.S. Equity Uncapped Accelerator ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.571, "architecture_energy": 56.997, "architecture_maturity": 51.134, "architecture_confidence": 83.207, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.13, "rotation_up": 56.29, "upward_expansion": 81.45, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 8.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.5019, 39.227584, 38.849911, 38.044918 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.6331, "trend_reference": 37.148453, "distance_from_trend": 0.093803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.647194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.252056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128193, "excess_performance": 0.002568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002521, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128193, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.944109, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4711, "relative_activity": 0.330144, "balance": 2.944109, "dry_up": 0.370264, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024085, "annualized_volatility": 0.154437, "from_high_reference": -0.000662, "from_low_reference": 0.247179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.148453, "fair_value_reference": 33.647194, "structural_low": 32.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008681, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004322, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.054365, "worst_return": -0.038205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.037983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001265, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.037983, "worst_return": 0.037983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078674, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 30.0602, "volume": 562, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 29.68, "volume": 615, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"energy": 43.61264, "activity_lines": [ 38.758073, 38.841678, 37.866423, 37.219577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.55, "volume": 8924, "typical_volume": 27301.2, "trend": 36.687473, "fair_value": 33.396252, "relative_strength": -0.060697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.857521, "energy": 53.27883, "activity_lines": [ 39.021513, 38.985538, 38.117786, 37.412976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.9085, "volume": 4084, "typical_volume": 19765.75, "trend": 36.80223, "fair_value": 33.456826, "relative_strength": -0.13842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.47542, "energy": 46.701356, "activity_lines": [ 39.01036, 38.978571, 38.29026, 37.556268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.5316, "volume": 5657, "typical_volume": 19464.5, "trend": 36.885503, "fair_value": 33.511987, "relative_strength": -0.510061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.575957, "energy": 41.26516, "activity_lines": [ 38.865467, 38.89774, 38.411206, 37.66784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.1003, "volume": 6682, "typical_volume": 16444.1, "trend": 37.00319, "fair_value": 33.572076, "relative_strength": -0.137844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.431399, "energy": 44.083005, "activity_lines": [ 38.958227, 38.923496, 38.568978, 37.81073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.6331, "volume": 4711, "typical_volume": 14269.55, "trend": 37.148453, "fair_value": 33.647194, "relative_strength": 0.252056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.5705, "energy": 56.997192, "activity_lines": [ 39.5019, 39.227584, 38.849911, 38.044918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }