{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d261779-7c8d-4c89-8553-ca70d681a696", "symbol": "W7L", "name": "Warpaint London PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.236, "architecture_energy": 21.081, "architecture_maturity": 4.945, "architecture_confidence": 81.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.79, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 13.57, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 46.56, "downward_expansion": 67.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 196.866667, 198.603002, 198.288939, 200.877117 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 207.0, "trend_reference": 204.583941, "distance_from_trend": 0.01181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 365.68088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.433933, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.287641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035, "excess_performance": -0.016235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.433933, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100989, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.445344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1424475, "relative_activity": 1.063731, "balance": 2.445344, "dry_up": 1.378771, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08684, "annualized_volatility": 0.624437, "from_high_reference": -0.424897, "from_low_reference": 0.255064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.583941, "fair_value_reference": 365.68088, "structural_low": 164.931877, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.042367, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.036116, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.424084, "worst_return": -0.290441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.104716, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133611, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.140748, "worst_return": -0.391441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07296, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.114305, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.324824, "worst_return": -0.436519, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.442564, "energy": 17.390646, "activity_lines": [ 209.34434, 204.060286, 202.001278, 204.46441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 192.0, "volume": 1027915, "typical_volume": 1273726.3, "trend": 204.650607, "fair_value": 368.169989, "relative_strength": -21.368359, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.145, "energy": 11.047694, "activity_lines": [ 203.5, 203.164205, 200.52262, 203.631037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.0, "volume": 2610607, "typical_volume": 1317833.85, "trend": 204.233941, "fair_value": 367.459572, "relative_strength": -25.090441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.788801, "energy": 29.387083, "activity_lines": [ 194.533333, 199.812249, 198.282057, 202.040676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 182.0, "volume": 1781286, "typical_volume": 1325257.0, "trend": 203.717274, "fair_value": 366.768381, "relative_strength": -23.571596, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.371167, "energy": 48.995398, "activity_lines": [ 188.4, 196.695359, 196.574827, 200.606228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.0, "volume": 1569052, "typical_volume": 1328584.8, "trend": 204.083941, "fair_value": 366.288691, "relative_strength": -13.436031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.915166, "energy": 34.661703, "activity_lines": [ 192.3, 197.6317, 197.32474, 200.688984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 207.0, "volume": 1424475, "typical_volume": 1339131.25, "trend": 204.583941, "fair_value": 365.68088, "relative_strength": -11.287641, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.236229, "energy": 21.081499, "activity_lines": [ 196.866667, 198.603002, 198.288939, 200.877117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }